Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:89% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:39% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:79% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:35% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 6.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 26.0% | 48.6% |
| 7-2 | 37.9% | 1.8% |
| 6-3 | 22.4% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 21.5% (+2.2%) | 19.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 19.0% (-0.4%) | 20.5% (+1.2%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 24.1% (+4.8%) | |
| 4.0% (-15.4%) | 21.3% (+1.9%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 19.3% (-0.1%) | 19.4% (+0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Minnesota
UCLA
MarylandCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 21.3% • Scenario: 88.9%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.0%Any 1 loss
48.6%
26.0%
62.8%
0.5%61.4%
1.7%
59.8%
9.4%
59.1%
1.6%
53.6%
0.2%
50.3%
0.7%
46.6%
0.8%
35.0%
11.1%Any 2 losses
1.8%
37.9%11.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.3%
0.5%4.1%
1.0%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.8%
2.5%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
2.7%3.3%
1.2%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.7%2.9%
0.1%2.2%
0.4%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
3.0%1.7%
3.2%1.5%
1.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.9%1.0%
17.4%1.0%
0.4%0.8%
1.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28