Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W39-7 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W20-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W27-10 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:43% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:10% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 95.8% |
| 8-1 | 0.7% | 39.4% |
| 7-2 | 4.4% | 1.1% |
| 6-3 | 14.9% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.3%) | 0.7% (+0.4%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Purdue
UCLA
Wisconsin
WashingtonCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandCCG: 0.7% • Scenario: 43.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
95.8%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
39.4%
0.7%71.4%
<0.1%
64.4%
<0.1%54.7%
<0.1%
52.6%
<0.1%
46.3%
<0.1%
39.5%
0.1%
35.7%
<0.1%
30.4%
0.3%Any 2 losses
1.9%
2.2%15.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.2%
0.2%0.9%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28