Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W20-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W59-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L27-30 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/17 | Win prob:58% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:88% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:35% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:86% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:5% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 66.7% |
| 7-2 | 5.1% | 2.5% |
| 6-3 | 20.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 33.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 11.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.1%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Minnesota
Purdue
Penn State
MichiganNebraska
WashingtonCCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganNebraskaCCG: 0.3% • Scenario: 78.1%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
66.7%
0.2%Any 1 loss
2.5%
5.2%
14.8%
<0.1%
10.0%
<0.1%9.0%
0.2%
5.9%
0.1%
5.4%
0.2%
4.5%
0.4%
3.0%
<0.1%1.7%
4.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28