Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W59-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W69-3 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W34-14 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-7 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W30-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:95% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/14 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:75% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 21.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 39.7% | 89.4% |
| 7-2 | 27.6% | 20.6% |
| 6-3 | 9.6% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 62.1% (-0.3%) | 62.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 69.8% (+7.4%) | 61.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 62.4% (+0.0%) | 62.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 62.3% (-0.0%) | 63.8% (+1.4%) | |
| 65.1% (+2.7%) | 62.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 62.3% (-0.1%) | 62.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 62.7% (+0.4%) | 61.9% (-0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
UL Monroe
Minnesota
Purdue
UCLACCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MinnesotaCCG: 69.8% • Scenario: 6.2%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
21.1%Any 1 loss
89.4%
39.7%
99.5%
6.4%97.9%
1.4%
93.7%
7.3%
90.9%
4.4%
85.7%
1.1%
84.1%
2.7%
83.6%
16.4%Any 2 losses
20.6%
27.6%47.9%
0.2%43.6%
0.8%43.3%
1.3%43.0%
0.2%40.2%
0.5%39.9%
0.3%39.8%
0.4%39.2%
0.3%37.5%
<0.1%34.8%
0.1%32.0%
0.9%31.5%
0.5%30.5%
1.5%29.3%
0.4%25.3%
2.1%14.9%
1.1%14.8%
3.6%14.1%
2.0%13.5%
4.8%12.6%
0.8%10.4%
5.6%0.7%
0.3%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28