Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-09-28
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 2-0 | 4-1 | 53.1% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 2-0 | 5-0 | 16.2% | |
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 47.1% | |
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 30.6% | |
| T1 |  CincinnatiCIN | 1-0 | 3-1 | 3.6% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 1-0 | 4-0 | 2.6% | |
| T7 |  KansasKU | 1-1 | 3-2 | 10.3% | |
| T7 |  Kansas StateKSU | 1-1 | 2-3 | 5.4% | |
| T7 |  UtahUTAH | 1-1 | 4-1 | 4.2% | |
| T7 |  BaylorBAY | 1-1 | 3-2 | 3.7% | |
| T11 |  TCUTCU | 0-1 | 3-1 | 19.2% | |
| T11 |  UCFUCF | 0-1 | 3-1 | 3.1% | |
| T11 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-2 | 2-3 | 0.7% | |
| T11 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-1 | 3-1 | 0.3% | |
| T11 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-2 | 2-3 | <0.1% | |
| T11 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-1 | 1-3 | - | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 53.1%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.6% (+1.5%) | 52.5% (-0.6%) | |
| 57.8% (+4.7%) | 52.4% (-0.7%) | |
| 52.0% (-1.1%) | 56.5% (+3.4%) | |
| 51.9% (-1.2%) | 54.3% (+1.2%) | |
| 52.0% (-1.1%) | 54.3% (+1.2%) | |
| 52.9% (-0.2%) | 53.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 51.4% (-1.7%) | 53.3% (+0.2%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ColoradoWest VirginiaHoustonKansas StateUCFCincinnatiOklahoma StateCCG: 87.5% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
HoustonCCG: 56.5% • Scenario: 24.3%
Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 98.5% | 65.0% | 7.6% | - | 53.1% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 98.5% | 62.8% | 5.0% | - | 47.1% |
| BYUBYU | 100% | 96.3% | 55.9% | 5.3% | <0.1% | 30.6% |
| TCUTCU | - | 96.7% | 57.4% | 8.0% | <0.1% | 19.2% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 98.4% | 63.9% | 5.4% | - | 16.2% |
| KansasKU | - | 97.2% | 49.8% | 1.9% | - | 10.3% |
| Kansas StateKSU | - | 97.4% | 56.0% | 5.0% | - | 5.4% |
| UtahUTAH | - | 98.3% | 68.1% | 10.3% | <0.1% | 4.2% |
| BaylorBAY | - | 91.3% | 40.5% | 2.0% | - | 3.7% |
| CincinnatiCIN | 100% | 94.4% | 47.5% | 2.8% | - | 3.6% |
| UCFUCF | - | 97.5% | 52.0% | 2.4% | - | 3.1% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 96.6% | 50.3% | 1.9% | - | 2.6% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | - | 65.7% | 6.2% | - | 0.7% |
| ArizonaARIZ | - | 100% | 63.8% | 4.6% | - | 0.3% |
| West VirginiaWVU | - | - | 100% | 20.0% | - | <0.1% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | - | - | 100% | - | - | - |
Data from 2025-09-28
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona StateASU(2-0) | 6.7% | 23.1% | 33.4% | 24.6% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | - | 6.9 |
| Texas TechTTU(1-0) | 5.5% | 20.6% | 31.8% | 25.9% | 12.3% | 3.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | - | 6.7 |
| BYUBYU(1-0) | 2.4% | 12.5% | 26.3% | 29.8% | 19.4% | 7.6% | 1.7% | 0.2% | <0.1% | - | 6.2 |
| TCUTCU(0-1) | - | 5.3% | 20.0% | 31.3% | 25.8% | 12.8% | 3.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6 |
| Iowa StateISU(2-0) | 0.5% | 4.3% | 15.4% | 28.9% | 29.7% | 16.6% | 4.3% | 0.3% | - | - | 5.5 |
| KansasKU(1-1) | - | 2.7% | 14.2% | 29.4% | 30.7% | 17.2% | 5.0% | 0.7% | <0.1% | - | 5.4 |
| Kansas StateKSU(1-1) | - | 0.8% | 6.4% | 19.3% | 30.4% | 26.9% | 12.9% | 3.0% | 0.2% | - | 4.7 |
| BaylorBAY(1-1) | - | 0.8% | 6.3% | 19.4% | 29.4% | 26.4% | 13.4% | 3.8% | 0.4% | - | 4.7 |
| CincinnatiCIN(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 4.8% | 15.4% | 27.4% | 29.0% | 17.0% | 5.1% | 0.5% | - | 4.5 |
| UCFUCF(0-1) | - | 0.4% | 4.3% | 15.5% | 29.1% | 29.4% | 16.1% | 4.6% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| HoustonHOU(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.7% | 13.6% | 27.3% | 31.3% | 18.2% | 4.9% | 0.5% | - | 4.4 |
| UtahUTAH(1-1) | - | 0.4% | 3.5% | 13.4% | 26.2% | 30.0% | 19.2% | 6.5% | 0.9% | - | 4.3 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-2) | - | - | 0.6% | 5.2% | 17.3% | 29.6% | 28.2% | 14.9% | 3.8% | 0.4% | 3.6 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 8.8% | 21.6% | 31.3% | 25.3% | 9.8% | 0.9% | 3.0 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-2) | - | - | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 11.1% | 28.0% | 37.1% | 20.8% | 1.4 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-1) | - | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 14.7% | 39.1% | 43.1% | 0.8 |
Data from 2025-09-28