Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L34-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:33% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:52% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 2.7% | 97.2% |
| 7-2 | 14.2% | 49.8% |
| 6-3 | 29.4% | 1.9% |
| 5-4 | 30.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 11.5% (+1.2%) | 9.8% (-0.4%) | |
| 12.0% (+1.8%) | 10.0% (-0.3%) | |
| 10.0% (-0.3%) | 11.1% (+0.8%) | |
| 10.8% (+0.5%) | 9.8% (-0.5%) | |
| 16.1% (+5.8%) | 3.7% (-6.5%) | |
| 10.2% (-0.1%) | 10.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.2%) | 10.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West Virginia
Houston
Kansas StateKansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 30.8% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
KansasCCG: 16.1% • Scenario: 53.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.2%
2.7%Any 1 loss
49.8%
14.2%74.1%
0.1%67.6%
1.5%
65.3%
1.1%
62.3%
2.4%
54.5%
1.2%
46.9%
2.3%
36.0%
5.5%Any 2 losses
1.9%
29.4%9.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.2%
0.6%5.1%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
1.0%4.3%
0.2%3.2%
1.3%3.1%
1.0%2.8%
1.1%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
2.2%2.3%
0.7%1.7%
4.9%1.7%
2.2%1.5%
3.2%1.3%
1.4%1.1%
1.1%1.0%
2.7%0.8%
5.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28