Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W48-14 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-21 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W35-24 | |
| 5 | 9/26 | L24-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:76% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:74% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:46% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:74% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 5.3% | 96.7% |
| 7-2 | 20.0% | 57.4% |
| 6-3 | 31.3% | 8.0% |
| 5-4 | 25.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 12.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5% (-11.6%) | 23.6% (+4.5%) | |
| 21.5% (+2.3%) | 18.8% (-0.3%) | |
| 17.9% (-1.2%) | 23.1% (+3.9%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.1%) | 19.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.8% (-0.4%) | 19.6% (+0.4%) | |
| 18.4% (-0.7%) | 20.2% (+1.0%) | |
| 19.1% (-0.1%) | 19.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
TCU
West Virginia
Houston
Baylor
Kansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 44.2% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TCUCCG: 23.6% • Scenario: 72.3%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
96.7%
5.3%Any 1 loss
57.4%
20.0%
70.7%
2.0%69.7%
1.0%65.3%
1.7%63.0%
1.9%
60.6%
4.3%58.8%
1.2%
53.7%
1.8%
45.8%
6.2%Any 2 losses
8.0%
31.3%14.4%
0.4%13.7%
0.7%12.0%
0.4%11.9%
0.6%10.9%
0.4%10.8%
1.7%10.8%
0.3%10.6%
0.3%10.4%
0.9%10.0%
1.5%9.8%
0.2%9.7%
0.8%9.7%
0.5%9.7%
0.6%9.2%
1.3%8.6%
0.7%8.4%
2.2%8.2%
0.6%7.6%
2.0%7.0%
1.4%6.7%
2.4%6.4%
1.5%6.4%
0.3%6.4%
5.0%6.3%
1.1%6.2%
0.4%5.8%
0.7%3.9%
2.2%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28