Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
30.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W69-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W27-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-13 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W24-21 | |
| 6 | 10/03 | Win prob:88% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:74% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:70% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:56% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:36% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:54% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:70% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 12.5% | 96.3% |
| 7-2 | 26.3% | 55.9% |
| 6-3 | 29.8% | 5.3% |
| 5-4 | 19.4% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 7.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 32.3% (+1.6%) | 30.0% (-0.6%) | |
| 13.7% (-16.9%) | 33.0% (+2.4%) | |
| 30.0% (-0.6%) | 32.5% (+1.9%) | |
| 30.5% (-0.1%) | 30.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 29.4% (-1.3%) | 32.1% (+1.4%) | |
| 30.1% (-0.6%) | 31.5% (+0.8%) | |
| 30.4% (-0.3%) | 30.7% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
ColoradoBYU
Houston
Kansas State
UCF
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BYUCCG: 33.0% • Scenario: 87.7%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.4%Any 1 loss
96.3%
12.5%
99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.9%
99.5%
0.9%99.4%
1.0%
98.9%
1.0%
98.0%
1.9%
96.9%
2.1%
92.3%
4.4%Any 2 losses
55.9%
26.3%85.8%
0.1%84.0%
0.4%83.0%
0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.7%
0.4%80.4%
0.4%78.9%
0.4%78.2%
0.4%74.2%
0.3%73.9%
0.1%73.0%
0.4%72.1%
0.7%70.9%
0.8%69.6%
0.9%69.2%
0.9%68.4%
0.8%66.6%
0.7%65.5%
0.3%60.8%
0.8%60.4%
1.8%58.3%
0.6%57.9%
0.9%57.3%
1.7%56.5%
1.5%48.6%
1.7%46.4%
1.8%39.4%
3.5%36.9%
3.8%Any 3 losses
5.2%
29.8%14.1%
0.2%13.2%
0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
0.1%12.1%
0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
0.3%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
0.6%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
0.3%9.5%
0.3%9.2%
0.3%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.8%
0.3%8.4%
<0.1%8.4%
0.7%7.6%
0.8%7.6%
0.3%6.9%
0.3%6.9%
0.3%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.6%
0.4%6.5%
0.7%6.5%
0.6%6.4%
0.1%6.2%
0.4%6.2%
0.4%6.1%
0.6%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.7%5.1%
0.7%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
1.3%4.6%
1.4%4.6%
1.5%4.5%
0.7%4.4%
0.1%4.4%
0.4%4.3%
1.6%4.2%
1.4%4.0%
0.5%3.9%
1.6%3.5%
1.5%3.4%
0.7%3.2%
0.6%2.2%
1.6%1.6%
3.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28