Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W34-9 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L20-34 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:72% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:24% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:94% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:29% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.4% | 97.5% |
| 7-2 | 4.3% | 52.0% |
| 6-3 | 15.5% | 2.4% |
| 5-4 | 29.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5% (+0.4%) | 2.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.7% (+0.6%) | 3.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.1%) | 3.5% (+0.4%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 3.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.8% (-2.2%) | 5.6% (+2.5%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.2%) | 3.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 3.3% (+0.2%) | 3.0% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West Virginia
Houston
BaylorUCF
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 15.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UCFCCG: 5.6% • Scenario: 47.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
97.5%
0.4%Any 1 loss
52.0%
4.3%64.9%
0.1%63.0%
0.6%62.6%
0.2%
62.0%
0.5%61.2%
0.4%53.1%
<0.1%
48.5%
1.1%
41.6%
1.4%Any 2 losses
2.4%
15.5%10.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.8%
0.2%4.5%
0.4%3.6%
1.4%3.5%
0.6%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.8%
0.3%2.4%
0.6%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.9%2.3%
1.6%2.2%
1.8%2.0%
1.2%1.9%
0.4%1.4%
1.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
3.4%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28