CincinnatiBearcats

3-1 T1st (1-0) in B12

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/28	vsNebraskaNEB(N)	L17-20
2	9/06	vsBowling GreenBGSU	W34-20
3	9/13	vsNorthwestern StateNWST	W70-0
5	9/27	@KansasKU	W37-34
6	10/04	vsIowa StateISU	Win prob:42%
7	10/11	vsUCFUCF	Win prob:43%
8	10/18	@Oklahoma StateOKST	Win prob:82%
9	10/25	vsBaylorBAY	Win prob:45%
10	11/01	@UtahUTAH	Win prob:28%
12	11/15	vsArizonaARIZ	Win prob:62%
13	11/22	vsBYUBYU	Win prob:30%
14	11/29	@TCUTCU	Win prob:16%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	0.1%	100.0%
8-1	0.8%	94.4%
7-2	4.8%	47.5%
6-3	15.4%	2.8%
5-4	27.4%	0%
4-5	29.0%	0%
3-6	17.0%	0%
2-7	5.1%	0%
1-8	0.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

36.5%

32.7%

14.7%

8.7%

7.4%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
ColoradoCOLO@TCUTCU	3.9% (+0.3%)	3.5% (-0.1%)
West VirginiaWVU@BYUBYU	3.9% (+0.4%)	3.5% (-0.1%)
Texas TechTTU@HoustonHOU	3.4% (-0.2%)	4.2% (+0.6%)
Kansas StateKSU@BaylorBAY	3.4% (-0.1%)	3.7% (+0.1%)
KansasKU@UCFUCF	3.4% (-0.2%)	3.8% (+0.2%)
Iowa StateISU@CincinnatiCIN	1.1% (-2.4%)	6.9% (+3.4%)
Oklahoma StateOKST@ArizonaARIZ	3.5% (-0.1%)	3.6% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Colorado

West Virginia

Houston

Kansas State

Kansas

Cincinnati

Oklahoma State

CCG: 23.1% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Cincinnati

CCG: 6.9% • Scenario: 42.2%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

<0.1%

Any 1 loss

94.4%

0.8%

97.7%

<0.1%

97.4%

<0.1%

95.8%

<0.1%

93.9%

<0.1%

93.8%

0.3%

93.3%

<0.1%

92.9%

0.1%

92.7%

0.1%

Any 2 losses

47.4%

4.8%

100.0%

<0.1%

82.3%

<0.1%

76.7%

<0.1%

69.2%

<0.1%

65.5%

<0.1%

63.3%

<0.1%

62.8%

0.2%

60.0%

<0.1%

58.3%

<0.1%

57.4%

0.2%

57.1%

<0.1%

55.0%

0.4%

55.0%

<0.1%

53.3%

<0.1%

52.7%

0.1%

52.2%

0.2%

51.6%

0.2%

51.2%

<0.1%

50.6%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.7%

0.4%

48.1%

0.2%

47.4%

0.2%

43.0%

0.4%

41.6%

0.7%

38.2%

0.6%

37.1%

0.3%

32.9%

0.2%

Any 3 losses

2.8%

15.4%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.4%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

9.5%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.9%

<0.1%

6.5%

<0.1%

6.2%

0.2%

5.6%

<0.1%

5.4%

0.1%

5.3%

0.2%

5.3%

<0.1%

5.1%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

4.8%

0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.5%

0.1%

4.5%

0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.2%

0.2%

4.2%

0.5%

4.1%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.4%

4.0%

<0.1%

4.0%

0.3%

4.0%

0.5%

3.7%

<0.1%

3.6%

0.3%

3.5%

0.4%

3.5%

0.5%

3.4%

0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.2%

0.2%

2.9%

0.9%

2.9%

0.2%

2.9%

0.5%

2.8%

0.4%

2.8%

0.9%

2.7%

1.0%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

0.2%

2.0%

0.9%

1.9%

0.1%

1.7%

0.2%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.5%

1.1%

1.3%

0.2%

1.3%

0.9%

1.2%

1.8%

0.9%

0.1%

0.8%

0.5%

0.7%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com