Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:50% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:55% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:55% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:70% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 91.3% |
| 7-2 | 6.3% | 40.5% |
| 6-3 | 19.4% | 2.0% |
| 5-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 13.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 3.9% (+0.2%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.5%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.4% (-0.3%) | 4.8% (+1.1%) | |
| 0.9% (-2.8%) | 6.5% (+2.8%) | |
| 3.6% (-0.2%) | 3.9% (+0.2%) | |
| 3.4% (-0.4%) | 4.2% (+0.5%) | |
| 3.8% (+0.1%) | 3.7% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
West Virginia
HoustonBaylor
Kansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma StateCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
BaylorCCG: 6.5% • Scenario: 50.5%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
91.3%
0.8%Any 1 loss
40.5%
6.3%49.4%
0.4%
49.1%
0.6%47.7%
0.7%
43.3%
0.8%
42.2%
0.7%
38.5%
0.7%
34.6%
2.5%Any 2 losses
2.0%
19.4%3.8%
0.6%3.7%
0.3%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
0.3%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
0.7%3.0%
1.8%2.8%
0.3%2.6%
0.6%2.4%
0.5%2.3%
0.5%2.0%
2.2%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
2.2%1.5%
0.5%1.3%
0.7%1.2%
1.1%1.2%
2.6%1.0%
2.2%0.9%
0.7%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28