Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W55-0 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L16-18 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | L10-20 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L7-26 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:16% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:27% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:73% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:8% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:52% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:9% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:29% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-09-28
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 6-2 | 0.1% | 22.9% |
| 5-3 | 1.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 36.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 23.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 4.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-28
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-28
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
KentuckyFlorida
Mississippi State
AlabamaCCG: 1.0% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Florida
OklahomaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 16.0%
Data from 2025-09-28
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
25.8%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
44.4%
<0.1%
25.0%
<0.1%
22.7%
<0.1%
20.0%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-28
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-28