VanderbiltCommodores

5-0 T1st (1-0) in SEC

Data from 2025-09-28 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsCharleston SouthernCHSO	W45-3
2	9/06	@Virginia TechVT	W44-20
3	9/13	@South CarolinaSC	W31-7
4	9/20	vsGeorgia StateGAST	W70-21
5	9/27	vsUtah StateUSU	W55-35
6	10/04	@AlabamaALA	Win prob:18%
8	10/18	vsLSULSU	Win prob:57%
9	10/25	vsMissouriMIZ	Win prob:55%
10	11/01	@TexasTEX	Win prob:16%
11	11/08	vsAuburnAUB	Win prob:66%
13	11/22	vsKentuckyUK	Win prob:80%
14	11/29	@TennesseeTENN	Win prob:29%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	0.1%	100.0%
7-1	2.1%	84.2%
6-2	11.1%	11.0%
5-3	27.4%	0.0%
4-4	32.6%	0%
3-5	20.1%	0%
2-6	6.0%	0%
1-7	0.6%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

32.1%

26.4%

22.4%

17.1%

2.0%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
KentuckyUK@GeorgiaUGA	4.7% (+1.6%)	3.0% (-0.1%)
TexasTEX@FloridaFLA	3.0% (-0.1%)	3.5% (+0.4%)
Mississippi StateMSST@Texas A&MTA&M	3.1% (-0.0%)	3.1% (+0.0%)
Kent StateKENT@OklahomaOU	2.9% (-0.3%)	3.1% (+0.0%)
VanderbiltVAN@AlabamaALA	11.2% (+8.1%)	1.3% (-1.8%)

Best Winner Combination for

Florida

Mississippi State

Kent State

Vanderbilt

CCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Vanderbilt

CCG: 11.2% • Scenario: 18.3%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

0.1%

Any 1 loss

84.2%

2.1%

95.2%

<0.1%

92.7%

0.1%

92.4%

0.4%

88.2%

0.1%

80.8%

0.8%

80.7%

0.6%

77.3%

<0.1%

Any 2 losses

11.0%

11.1%

28.7%

<0.1%

24.7%

0.2%

23.8%

<0.1%

21.2%

<0.1%

20.7%

<0.1%

20.2%

0.1%

19.7%

0.3%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.3%

0.3%

16.7%

<0.1%

16.2%

0.2%

13.8%

0.4%

13.6%

0.6%

12.7%

0.3%

12.6%

0.5%

12.5%

0.5%

11.1%

0.6%

10.9%

1.8%

10.4%

1.6%

9.9%

0.2%

6.6%

3.3%

1.0%

0.1%

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-09-28 • SportsSimulate.com