Big Ten

Big Ten Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05

Big TenConference Standings

T1OregonORE2-05-066.0%
T1Ohio StOSU2-05-060.3%
T1IndianaIU2-05-037.1%
T1MichiganMICH2-04-125.4%
T5USCUSC2-14-15.2%
T5IllinoisILL2-15-10.4%
T7WashingtonWASH1-14-11.0%
T7IowaIOWA1-13-20.6%
T7NebraskaNEB1-14-10.5%
T7MinnesotaMINN1-13-20.1%
T7MarylandMD1-14-1<0.1%
T7NorthwesternNU1-13-2-
T7UCLAUCLA1-11-4-
T14Penn StPSU0-23-23.2%
T14Michigan StMSU0-23-2-
T14PurduePUR0-22-3-
T14RutgersRUTG0-23-2-
T14WisconsinWIS0-22-3-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Big Ten CCG Matchups

133.8%
Ohio StOSU
vs
OREOregon
216.4%
IndianaIU
vs
OSUOhio St
314.3%
IndianaIU
vs
OREOregon
412.8%
MichiganMICH
vs
OREOregon
56.8%
MichiganMICH
vs
OSUOhio St
64.9%
IndianaIU
vs
MICHMichigan
72.4%
OregonORE
vs
PSUPenn St
81.9%
Ohio StOSU
vs
USCUSC
91.8%
OregonORE
vs
USCUSC
100.9%
IndianaIU
vs
USCUSC
110.5%
MichiganMICH
vs
USCUSC
120.5%
Ohio StOSU
vs
WASHWashington
130.4%
OregonORE
vs
WASHWashington
140.4%
Ohio StOSU
vs
PSUPenn St
150.2%
NebraskaNEB
vs
OREOregon

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on Big Ten CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 66.0%
Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
RutgersRUTG@WashingtonWASH
66.0%
(-0.0%)		66.0%
(+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@WisconsinWIS
65.8%
(-0.2%)		66.4%
(+0.4%)
MichiganMICH@USCUSC
62.6%
(-3.4%)		68.2%
(+2.2%)
IndianaIU@OregonORE
37.3%
(-28.7%)		84.9%
(+18.9%)
NebraskaNEB@MarylandMD
65.9%
(-0.1%)		66.1%
(+0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@Michigan StMSU
66.0%
(+0.0%)		66.0%
(-0.0%)
PurduePUR@MinnesotaMINN
66.1%
(+0.1%)		66.0%
(-0.0%)
Ohio StOSU@IllinoisILL
65.0%
(-1.0%)		75.5%
(+9.5%)
NorthwesternNU@Penn StPSU
65.6%
(-0.4%)		66.0%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Oregon

RutgersRutgersWisconsinWisconsinUSCUSCIllinoisIllinoisNorthwesternNorthwestern

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Oregon

OregonOregon

CCG: 84.9% • Scenario: 60.3%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-17-26-3Overall
OregonORE100%85.7%25.9%0.2%66.0%
Ohio StOSU100%73.6%6.7%-60.3%
IndianaIU100%63.8%4.1%<0.1%37.1%
MichiganMICH100%61.8%3.5%-25.4%
USCUSC-66.2%3.5%-5.2%
Penn StPSU--14.3%<0.1%3.2%
WashingtonWASH-87.6%5.8%-1.0%
IowaIOWA-90.0%12.4%<0.1%0.6%
NebraskaNEB-61.9%4.5%-0.5%
IllinoisILL-69.6%3.9%-0.4%
MinnesotaMINN-50.0%1.2%-0.1%
MarylandMD-58.4%3.4%-<0.1%
Michigan StMSU-----
NorthwesternNU--16.7%--
PurduePUR-----
RutgersRUTG-----
UCLAUCLA--100%--
WisconsinWIS--100%--

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Big TenFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-17-26-35-44-53-62-71-80-9Avg Wins
Ohio StOSU(2-0)25.6%44.9%24.3%4.7%0.4%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.9
OregonORE(2-0)24.8%40.4%25.6%7.8%1.3%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.8
IndianaIU(2-0)10.4%39.3%41.2%8.5%0.6%<0.1%0.0%0.0%--7.5
MichiganMICH(2-0)6.6%28.3%39.3%20.5%4.7%0.5%<0.1%0.0%--7.1
USCUSC(2-1)-6.2%30.5%38.9%19.9%4.2%0.3%0.0%--6.1
Penn StPSU(0-2)--22.1%43.0%27.1%7.0%0.8%<0.1%0.0%0.0%5.8
WashingtonWASH(1-1)-0.7%7.4%27.6%35.7%21.5%6.3%0.8%<0.1%-5.1
NebraskaNEB(1-1)-0.4%6.2%22.6%34.5%25.7%9.1%1.4%<0.1%-4.9
IllinoisILL(2-1)-0.3%4.8%19.9%34.5%28.3%10.7%1.4%--4.8
MinnesotaMINN(1-1)-0.2%4.2%20.4%35.7%27.6%10.0%1.7%0.1%-4.8
IowaIOWA(1-1)-0.2%3.0%14.6%32.1%32.3%14.8%2.8%0.2%-4.5
MarylandMD(1-1)-<0.1%1.5%8.7%23.5%33.1%24.1%8.1%1.0%-4.0
NorthwesternNU(1-1)-0.0%<0.1%<0.1%1.5%10.2%32.2%42.6%13.4%-2.4
RutgersRUTG(0-2)--<0.1%0.1%1.6%10.9%29.8%36.3%18.1%3.1%2.3
UCLAUCLA(1-1)-0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.4%3.9%18.9%42.1%34.7%-1.9
WisconsinWIS(0-2)--0.0%<0.1%0.5%4.7%18.4%34.7%31.3%10.4%1.8
Michigan StMSU(0-2)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%1.5%10.1%32.3%42.7%13.4%1.4
PurduePUR(0-2)--0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.3%3.1%16.6%42.0%38.0%0.9

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com