Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-16 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W47-7 | |
| 4 | 9/19 | W38-28 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L15-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:70% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:17% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:76% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:22% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:27% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 90.0% |
| 7-2 | 3.0% | 12.4% |
| 6-3 | 14.6% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 32.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 32.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.7% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (+0.3%) | 0.0% (-0.6%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 0.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (-0.0%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (-0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.5%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.2%) | 0.6% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
WashingtonIowa
USC
Oregon
Maryland
UCLA
Minnesota
Ohio State
NorthwesternCCG: 8.7% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Iowa
Penn StateCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 68.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
90.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
12.4%
3.0%25.4%
<0.1%
20.5%
0.3%15.0%
0.6%12.9%
1.1%
9.5%
<0.1%7.2%
0.8%
5.4%
0.1%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05