Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W73-13 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W59-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W33-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W45-31 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L32-34 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:10% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:65% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 6.2% | 66.2% |
| 7-2 | 30.5% | 3.5% |
| 6-3 | 38.9% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.9% (-0.2%) | 5.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.2%) | 4.7% (-0.5%) | |
| 0.3% (-4.9%) | 8.4% (+3.3%) | |
| 3.5% (-1.7%) | 6.3% (+1.1%) | |
| 5.3% (+0.2%) | 4.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.1%) | 5.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.2%) | 5.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.4%) | 8.5% (+3.3%) | |
| 6.4% (+1.2%) | 5.2% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Nebraska
UCLA
Purdue
Illinois
NorthwesternCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
USCCCG: 8.4% • Scenario: 60.3%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
65.7%
0.6%Any 1 loss
44.6%
8.6%
66.3%
5.6%16.7%
<0.1%10.1%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%
6.2%
0.2%
3.7%
0.4%
2.6%
2.0%Any 2 losses
3.4%
27.5%9.1%
0.3%8.6%
3.1%5.5%
2.0%4.1%
0.2%2.5%
18.3%2.3%
3.7%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05