Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W38-21 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W70-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W59-24 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L6-24 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-20 | |
| 7 | 10/10 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:20% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:70% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:91% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:15% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.7% | 87.6% |
| 7-2 | 7.4% | 5.8% |
| 6-3 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 35.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 21.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (-0.9%) | 1.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 1.0% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.8% (-0.2%) | 1.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.7%) | |
| 1.0% (-0.0%) | 1.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
Iowa
Michigan
Oregon
Michigan State
Purdue
NorthwesternCCG: 25.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
WashingtonCCG: 1.4% • Scenario: 69.0%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
87.6%
0.7%Any 1 loss
5.8%
7.4%
11.6%
0.1%
11.1%
0.3%10.8%
0.3%9.7%
<0.1%
7.9%
0.4%5.3%
3.6%4.7%
2.6%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05