Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L13-24 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W63-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W30-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W24-10 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:80% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:90% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:97% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:93% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:34% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 6.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 28.3% | 61.8% |
| 7-2 | 39.3% | 3.5% |
| 6-3 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 24.4% (-1.1%) | 25.9% (+0.5%) | |
| 25.1% (-0.3%) | 26.2% (+0.8%) | |
| 42.0% (+16.6%) | 14.5% (-10.9%) | |
| 24.5% (-0.9%) | 26.0% (+0.6%) | |
| 25.7% (+0.2%) | 25.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 24.0% (-1.4%) | 26.1% (+0.6%) | |
| 26.2% (+0.7%) | 25.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 25.2% (-0.3%) | 28.0% (+2.5%) | |
| 29.9% (+4.5%) | 25.4% (-0.1%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Rutgers
Wisconsin
Purdue
Illinois
NorthwesternCCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MichiganCCG: 42.0% • Scenario: 39.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
6.6%Any 1 loss
61.8%
28.3%81.1%
0.5%
77.7%
10.1%
77.2%
0.8%
76.3%
1.9%
73.8%
1.7%67.8%
0.3%
44.1%
13.1%Any 2 losses
3.5%
39.4%18.4%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.0%
0.9%8.8%
0.4%8.8%
0.2%7.3%
2.9%6.4%
2.6%6.0%
1.2%6.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.4%3.8%
1.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
3.8%3.2%
1.5%2.9%
0.5%2.6%
3.3%1.8%
20.0%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05