Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W39-7 | |
| 2 | 9/05 | W20-9 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W44-17 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W27-10 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L20-24 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:75% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:11% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:41% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:43% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:22% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:72% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 58.4% |
| 7-2 | 1.5% | 3.4% |
| 6-3 | 8.7% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 23.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 33.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 8.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
USC
IndianaMaryland
UCLA
Illinois
NorthwesternCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
MarylandCCG: 0.2% • Scenario: 39.7%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
58.4%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
3.5%
1.4%
8.6%
0.1%
8.1%
0.1%5.7%
0.1%
2.9%
<0.1%
2.2%
0.3%1.8%
0.7%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05