OregonDucks

5-0 T1st (2-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-10-05 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

66.0%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
1	8/30	vsMontana StateMTST	W59-13
2	9/06	vsOklahoma StateOKST	W69-3
3	9/13	@NorthwesternNU	W34-14
4	9/20	vsOregon StateORST	W41-7
5	9/27	@Penn StatePSU	W30-24
7	10/11	vsIndianaIU	Win prob:60%
8	10/18	@RutgersRUTG	Win prob:90%
9	10/25	vsWisconsinWIS	Win prob:95%
11	11/08	@IowaIOWA	Win prob:78%
12	11/14	vsMinnesotaMINN	Win prob:94%
13	11/22	vsUSCUSC	Win prob:77%
14	11/29	@WashingtonWASH	Win prob:85%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	24.8%	100.0%
8-1	40.4%	85.7%
7-2	25.6%	25.9%
6-3	7.8%	0.2%
5-4	1.3%	0%
4-5	0.1%	0%
3-6	0%	0%
2-7	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

52.0%

22.0%

19.7%

3.6%

2.7%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
RutgersRUTG@WashingtonWASH	66.0% (-0.0%)	66.0% (+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@WisconsinWIS	65.8% (-0.2%)	66.4% (+0.4%)
MichiganMICH@USCUSC	62.6% (-3.4%)	68.2% (+2.2%)
IndianaIU@OregonORE	37.3% (-28.7%)	84.9% (+18.9%)
NebraskaNEB@MarylandMD	65.9% (-0.1%)	66.1% (+0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@Michigan StateMSU	66.0% (+0.0%)	66.0% (-0.0%)
PurduePUR@MinnesotaMINN	66.1% (+0.1%)	66.0% (-0.0%)
Ohio StateOSU@IllinoisILL	65.0% (-1.0%)	75.5% (+9.5%)
NorthwesternNU@Penn StatePSU	65.6% (-0.4%)	66.0% (+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for

Rutgers

Wisconsin

USC

Illinois

Northwestern

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for

Oregon

CCG: 84.9% • Scenario: 60.3%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

100.0%

24.8%

Any 1 loss

85.7%

40.4%

99.1%

6.9%

97.6%

2.7%

97.4%

1.5%

90.5%

7.5%

85.0%

4.5%

77.3%

1.2%

75.3%

16.1%

Any 2 losses

25.9%

25.6%

55.3%

0.5%

54.9%

0.8%

53.4%

0.2%

52.5%

0.5%

52.0%

0.1%

51.6%

<0.1%

51.1%

0.3%

48.0%

1.3%

44.2%

0.3%

40.9%

0.9%

38.8%

0.5%

38.4%

0.2%

36.1%

1.3%

32.5%

2.2%

31.4%

0.3%

19.5%

1.0%

18.6%

1.9%

18.2%

0.8%

18.0%

4.6%

17.6%

3.0%

12.7%

5.0%

Any 3 losses

1.0%

0.8%

2.4%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.4%

0.9%

0.1%

0.5%

0.2%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com