Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | L24-38 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W48-45 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L24-27 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W45-27 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W35-34 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:52% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:59% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:45% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:66% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:71% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 1.6% | 92.5% |
| 7-2 | 10.8% | 38.4% |
| 6-3 | 27.0% | 1.3% |
| 5-4 | 32.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 6.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 5.5% (-0.4%) | 6.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 4.9% (-1.0%) | 6.9% (+0.9%) | |
| 6.7% (+0.8%) | 5.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 6.0% (+0.1%) | 5.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.8% (-0.1%) | 6.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 5.5% (-0.4%) | 7.5% (+1.6%) | |
| 5.4% (-0.5%) | 6.5% (+0.5%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa State
Utah
Kansas
Cincinnati
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Kansas StateCCG: 16.4% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 6.9% • Scenario: 51.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
92.5%
1.6%Any 1 loss
38.4%
10.8%48.4%
0.8%
47.6%
0.7%
44.7%
1.1%44.4%
1.4%
35.1%
4.8%30.9%
1.9%Any 2 losses
1.6%
19.2%3.8%
0.3%3.5%
0.4%3.3%
0.5%2.9%
0.6%2.6%
0.7%2.1%
0.8%1.7%
2.6%1.6%
3.3%1.5%
1.0%1.2%
1.0%1.1%
1.3%1.0%
2.0%1.0%
4.6%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05