Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W45-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W44-20 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W31-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W70-21 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | W55-35 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L14-30 | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:59% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:18% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:33% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 76.3% |
| 6-2 | 9.7% | 11.6% |
| 5-3 | 27.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 34.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.9% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.0%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.2%) | 2.4% (+0.4%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.2%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.2%) | 3.2% (+1.3%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.2%) | 1.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for 
CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for 
CCG: 3.2% • Scenario: 14.8%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
76.3%
1.1%Any 1 loss
11.6%
9.7%15.7%
0.5%15.2%
0.9%13.4%
0.7%12.6%
2.2%10.8%
0.2%9.9%
5.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05