SEC

SEC Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2025-10-05

SECConference Standings

T1MississippiMISS3-05-050.5%
T1AlabamaALA2-04-168.6%
T1Texas A&MTA&M2-05-06.5%
T1MissouriMIZ1-05-09.4%
T1OklahomaOU1-05-02.9%
6GeorgiaUGA2-14-138.6%
T7TennesseeTENN1-14-15.7%
T7LSULSU1-14-12.3%
T7VanderbiltVAN1-15-11.9%
T7FloridaFLA1-12-30.2%
11South CarolinaSC1-23-2<0.1%
T12TexasTEX0-13-213.2%
T12ArkansasARK0-12-3<0.1%
T12AuburnAUB0-23-2<0.1%
T12KentuckyUK0-32-3-
T12Mississippi StMSST0-24-2-

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely SEC CCG Matchups

128.3%
AlabamaALA
vs
MISSMississippi
224.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
UGAGeorgia
38.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MISSMississippi
47.0%
AlabamaALA
vs
TEXTexas
54.0%
MississippiMISS
vs
TEXTexas
63.3%
MississippiMISS
vs
MIZMissouri
73.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
MIZMissouri
82.4%
AlabamaALA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
92.3%
MississippiMISS
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
102.1%
MississippiMISS
vs
TENNTennessee
111.8%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
MIZMissouri
121.5%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TENNTennessee
131.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
TENNTennessee
141.1%
GeorgiaUGA
vs
TA&MTexas A&M
151.1%
AlabamaALA
vs
OUOklahoma

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on SEC CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 68.6%
Game
AlabamaCCG OddsAway
AlabamaCCG OddsHome
South CarolinaSC@LSULSU
68.9%
(+0.3%)		68.4%
(-0.1%)
OklahomaOU@TexasTEX
69.9%
(+1.3%)		68.2%
(-0.4%)
AlabamaALA@MissouriMIZ
79.8%
(+11.3%)		46.1%
(-22.5%)
ArkansasARK@TennesseeTENN
69.2%
(+0.6%)		68.5%
(-0.1%)
FloridaFLA@Texas A&MTA&M
69.6%
(+1.1%)		68.2%
(-0.4%)
GeorgiaUGA@AuburnAUB
68.0%
(-0.6%)		72.1%
(+3.5%)
Washington StWSU@MississippiMISS
67.2%
(-1.4%)		68.6%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for Alabama

South CarolinaSouth CarolinaOklahomaOklahomaFloridaFloridaAuburnAuburnWashington StWashington State

CCG: 100.0% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Alabama

AlabamaAlabama

CCG: 79.8% • Scenario: 66.6%

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

SECCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team8-07-16-25-3Overall
AlabamaALA100%95.7%42.3%0.3%68.6%
MississippiMISS99.9%63.4%6.3%-50.5%
GeorgiaUGA-97.2%18.6%<0.1%38.6%
TexasTEX-81.3%4.6%-13.2%
MissouriMIZ100%70.1%6.6%-9.4%
Texas A&MTA&M98.8%59.0%4.0%-6.5%
TennesseeTENN-75.7%5.7%<0.1%5.7%
OklahomaOU100%98.5%41.3%0.3%2.9%
LSULSU-89.7%18.1%<0.1%2.3%
VanderbiltVAN-76.3%11.6%<0.1%1.9%
FloridaFLA-85.2%26.3%<0.1%0.2%
ArkansasARK-73.3%20.6%0.4%<0.1%
South CarolinaSC--45.2%0.3%<0.1%
AuburnAUB--23.0%<0.1%<0.1%
KentuckyUK---4.5%-
Mississippi StMSST-----

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com

SECFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team8-07-16-25-34-43-52-61-70-8Avg Wins
MississippiMISS(3-0)18.7%47.6%27.4%5.9%0.5%<0.1%---6.8
AlabamaALA(2-0)20.6%37.6%28.1%11.0%2.4%0.3%<0.1%--6.6
GeorgiaUGA(2-1)-31.4%43.2%20.9%4.1%0.4%<0.1%--6.0
TexasTEX(0-1)-13.9%40.3%31.7%11.6%2.3%0.3%<0.1%0.0%5.5
Texas A&MTA&M(2-0)0.9%7.8%24.4%34.8%23.5%7.6%0.9%--5.0
MissouriMIZ(1-0)1.4%9.2%23.4%31.1%23.3%9.6%1.9%0.1%-5.0
TennesseeTENN(1-1)-5.5%26.0%36.3%23.3%7.5%1.2%<0.1%-4.9
VanderbiltVAN(1-1)-1.1%9.7%27.8%34.8%20.6%5.5%0.5%-4.2
LSULSU(1-1)-0.9%8.2%24.6%34.4%23.4%7.6%0.9%-4.0
OklahomaOU(1-0)<0.1%0.8%5.0%16.6%29.4%29.8%15.3%3.1%-3.6
FloridaFLA(1-1)-<0.1%0.7%6.5%24.2%39.1%24.5%5.0%-3.0
South CarolinaSC(1-2)--0.1%2.2%12.4%31.6%37.4%16.3%-2.5
AuburnAUB(0-2)--0.2%2.4%12.5%30.4%34.5%17.3%2.8%2.4
ArkansasARK(0-1)-<0.1%0.3%3.0%12.7%28.3%33.0%18.8%3.9%2.4
KentuckyUK(0-3)---<0.1%0.6%5.3%22.4%42.8%28.8%1.1
Mississippi StMSST(0-2)--0.0%<0.1%0.6%4.5%20.5%42.0%32.4%1.0

Data from 2025-10-05 • SportsSimulate.com