Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W24-13 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W42-3 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W24-17 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W44-0 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:22% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:52% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:27% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:32% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.8% | 98.5% |
| 6-2 | 5.0% | 41.3% |
| 5-3 | 16.6% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 29.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 15.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 7.9% (+5.0%) | 1.5% (-1.4%) | |
| 2.7% (-0.2%) | 3.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 2.9% (-0.0%) | 2.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.0% (+0.1%) | 2.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 3.8% (+0.8%) | |
| 2.9% (+0.0%) | 2.9% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South CarolinaOklahoma
Missouri
Auburn
Washington StateCCG: 33.3% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
OklahomaCCG: 7.9% • Scenario: 21.6%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.5%
0.8%
100.0%
0.2%
99.1%
0.2%
98.3%
0.2%97.5%
<0.1%
97.1%
0.1%
96.3%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
41.2%
5.0%64.7%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%61.9%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.9%
0.4%58.9%
0.2%57.7%
<0.1%55.7%
0.1%55.7%
<0.1%52.3%
0.1%46.3%
0.3%42.3%
0.1%41.8%
0.2%41.8%
0.2%41.6%
0.1%41.2%
0.5%37.1%
0.5%37.1%
0.2%36.5%
0.1%35.9%
0.9%19.3%
0.7%Any 3 losses
0.9%
2.7%2.3%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.7%
0.5%0.6%
0.8%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05