Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | L7-14 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W38-7 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W27-10 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W55-0 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | L21-29 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:78% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:91% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:91% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:34% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:92% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2025-10-05
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-1 | 13.9% | 81.3% |
| 6-2 | 40.3% | 4.6% |
| 5-3 | 31.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-05
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-05
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 13.6% (+0.4%) | 13.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 1.1% (-12.1%) | 16.5% (+3.3%) | |
| 12.3% (-0.9%) | 15.0% (+1.8%) | |
| 14.3% (+1.1%) | 13.0% (-0.2%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.3%) | 13.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 12.9% (-0.3%) | 14.9% (+1.7%) | |
| 13.0% (-0.2%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
South CarolinaTexas
Alabama
Arkansas
Texas A&M
Auburn
Washington StateCCG: 50.0% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
TexasCCG: 16.5% • Scenario: 78.4%
Data from 2025-10-05
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
81.3%
13.9%Any 1 loss
4.6%
40.3%
12.9%
1.3%
12.7%
1.4%10.6%
1.3%
8.0%
2.8%7.6%
2.9%
6.2%
3.8%
2.6%
26.8%Data from 2025-10-05
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-05