Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/23 | W31-7 | |
| 1 | 8/29 | W46-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | L31-42 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | W41-10 | |
| 5 | 9/27 | L34-37 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W27-20 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | L17-42 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:59% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:97% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:70% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:47% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2025-10-12
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 10.8% | 33.6% |
| 6-3 | 32.7% | 0.7% |
| 5-4 | 36.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-12
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-12
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0% (+0.2%) | 3.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 5.1% (+1.2%) | 3.0% (-0.8%) | |
| 4.0% (+0.2%) | 3.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.8% (-0.1%) | 3.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.7% (-0.1%) | 4.8% (+1.0%) | |
| 3.9% (+0.0%) | 3.8% (-0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Texas Tech
Utah
Baylor
UCF
Oklahoma State
ArizonaCCG: 11.5% • Scenario: 0.2%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
UtahCCG: 5.1% • Scenario: 39.1%
Data from 2025-10-12
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
33.6%
10.8%Any 1 loss
1.2%
12.6%1.3%
4.6%1.2%
0.3%
1.1%
7.6%Data from 2025-10-12
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-12