Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W20-17 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | W68-0 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | W59-7 | |
| 4 | 9/20 | L27-30 | |
| 6 | 10/04 | W38-27 | |
| 7 | 10/11 | W34-31 | |
| 8 | 10/17 | L6-24 | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:80% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:30% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:12% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:40% |
Data from 2025-10-19
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 0.9% | 2.6% |
| 6-3 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 5-4 | 33.4% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 38.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-10-19
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-10-19
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.2% (+0.1%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (+0.0%) |
Best Winner Combination for
Iowa
Oregon
Purdue
MichiganNebraska
UCLA
IllinoisCCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 0.1%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
PurdueNebraskaCCG: 0.1% • Scenario: 21.4%
Data from 2025-10-19
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
2.6%
0.9%Data from 2025-10-19
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-10-19