PAC 12 Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-09-17
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 1-1 | 90.5% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 35.4% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 1-1 | 32.7% | |
| T1 |  Oregon StateORST | 0-0 | 0-2 | 15.3% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 10.4% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 6.3% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4.8% | |
| T1 |  Washington StateWSU | 0-0 | 0-2 | 4.7% | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-09-17
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 90.5% (-0.0%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 90.4% (-0.1%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 90.5% (+0.0%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 90.5% (+0.0%) | 90.3% (-0.1%) | ||
| 90.5% (+0.1%) | 90.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 90.3% (-0.2%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 90.5% (-0.0%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 90.5% (+0.0%) | 90.5% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.7% | 78.6% | 13.4% | - | 90.5% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 99.2% | 70.8% | 12.0% | <0.1% | 35.4% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 99.2% | 70.5% | 12.5% | <0.1% | 32.7% |
| Oregon StateORST | 100% | 99.1% | 67.0% | 9.8% | <0.1% | 15.3% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 99.1% | 71.0% | 11.6% | <0.1% | 10.4% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.2% | 68.1% | 10.4% | <0.1% | 6.3% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 99.3% | 67.7% | 10.1% | <0.1% | 4.8% |
| Washington StateWSU | 100% | 99.3% | 71.2% | 11.6% | <0.1% | 4.7% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 33.5% | 40.8% | 19.9% | 5.1% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.0 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 1.3% | 10.9% | 27.5% | 32.1% | 20.1% | 6.8% | 1.2% | <0.1% | 4.2 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 1.6% | 10.0% | 24.6% | 30.9% | 22.0% | 8.9% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.0 |
| Oregon StateORST(0-0) | 0.2% | 3.0% | 13.8% | 28.5% | 30.9% | 17.8% | 5.2% | 0.6% | 3.4 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.7% | 8.5% | 21.3% | 30.5% | 24.9% | 10.9% | 2.0% | 2.9 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.4% | 17.6% | 30.5% | 28.9% | 14.1% | 2.7% | 2.7 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.1% | 15.0% | 29.4% | 30.9% | 16.6% | 3.5% | 2.5 |
| Washington StateWSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.6% | 13.1% | 26.9% | 31.4% | 19.5% | 4.9% | 2.4 |
Data from 2026-09-17
Who is still alive for the PAC 12 Championship Game?
As of Week 3, Boise State (90.5%), San Diego State (35.4%) and Fresno State (32.7%) currently have the best odds to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely PAC 12 Championship Game matchup?
Boise State vs. San Diego State is the most likely PAC 12 Championship Game matchup at 29.8%, followed by Boise State vs. Fresno State (26.8%) and Boise State vs. Oregon State (12.7%).