PAC 12 Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-08-26
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 0-0 | 62.8% | |
| T1 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 49.2% | |
| T1 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 0-0 | 25.0% | |
| T1 |  Texas StateTXST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 20.1% | |
| T1 |  Washington StateWSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 19.4% | |
| T1 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 10.8% | |
| T1 |  Oregon StateORST | 0-0 | 0-0 | 9.8% | |
| T1 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 0-0 | 2.9% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 62.8%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 99.8% | 78.8% | 13.2% | - | 62.8% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 99.7% | 76.7% | 12.9% | <0.1% | 49.2% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 99.6% | 73.8% | 10.5% | <0.1% | 25.0% |
| Texas StateTXST | 100% | 99.4% | 71.8% | 9.7% | - | 20.1% |
| Washington StateWSU | 100% | 99.7% | 74.3% | 10.3% | <0.1% | 19.4% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 99.8% | 72.8% | 10.2% | - | 10.8% |
| Oregon StateORST | 100% | 99.6% | 74.8% | 11.0% | - | 9.8% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 100% | 78.1% | 13.5% | - | 2.9% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 8.5% | 25.8% | 32.6% | 22.0% | 8.9% | 2.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 4.2% | 18.0% | 30.7% | 27.5% | 14.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 4.5 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.6% | 19.4% | 29.8% | 26.3% | 13.1% | 3.5% | 0.3% | 3.7 |
| Texas StateTXST(0-0) | 0.6% | 5.0% | 16.5% | 29.0% | 28.1% | 15.7% | 4.6% | 0.5% | 3.5 |
| Washington StateWSU(0-0) | 0.6% | 4.5% | 15.5% | 27.6% | 28.6% | 17.2% | 5.3% | 0.7% | 3.4 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 1.8% | 9.0% | 22.4% | 31.1% | 24.1% | 9.8% | 1.6% | 3.0 |
| Oregon StateORST(0-0) | 0.1% | 1.6% | 7.9% | 20.2% | 30.4% | 25.6% | 12.0% | 2.3% | 2.8 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 8.2% | 21.3% | 32.4% | 27.0% | 9.0% | 2.0 |
Data from 2026-08-26