PAC 12 Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2026-11-02
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Boise StateBOIS | 4-0 | 7-1 | 99.7% | |
| 2 |  Oregon StateORST | 3-1 | 5-3 | 50.8% | |
| 3 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 3-2 | 4-5 | 4.8% | |
| T4 |  Fresno StateFRES | 2-2 | 5-3 | 24.9% | |
| T4 |  Texas StateTXST | 2-2 | 4-4 | 17.1% | |
| T4 |  Utah StateUSU | 2-2 | 3-5 | 2.8% | |
| 7 |  Colorado StateCSU | 1-3 | 3-5 | - | |
| 8 |  Washington StateWSU | 0-5 | 1-8 | - | |
Based on 1,000,000 simulations • Data from 2026-11-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 99.7% (+0.0%) | 99.3% (-0.4%) | ||
| 99.7% (+0.0%) | 99.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.8% (+0.1%) | 99.7% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Boise StateTexas StateCCG: 99.7% • Scenario: 29.9%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 100% | 82.8% | 4.3% | 99.7% |
| Oregon StateORST | - | 100% | 68.3% | 6.5% | 50.8% |
| Fresno StateFRES | - | - | 86.5% | 4.8% | 24.9% |
| Texas StateTXST | - | - | 98.5% | 5.5% | 17.1% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | - | - | 68.0% | 8.7% | 4.8% |
| Utah StateUSU | - | - | 84.7% | 0.1% | 2.8% |
| Colorado StateCSU | - | - | - | 4.5% | - |
| Washington StateWSU | - | - | - | - | - |
Data from 2026-11-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(4-0) | 73.3% | 25.2% | 1.5% | <0.1% | - | - | - | - | 6.7 |
| Oregon StateORST(3-1) | - | 12.4% | 53.3% | 30.3% | 4.0% | - | - | - | 4.7 |
| Fresno StateFRES(2-2) | - | - | 26.0% | 49.6% | 22.7% | 1.7% | - | - | 4.0 |
| Texas StateTXST(2-2) | - | - | 14.7% | 46.9% | 33.8% | 4.6% | - | - | 3.7 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(3-2) | - | - | 1.2% | 44.7% | 54.1% | - | - | - | 3.5 |
| Utah StateUSU(2-2) | - | - | 3.3% | 25.3% | 47.8% | 23.6% | - | - | 3.1 |
| Colorado StateCSU(1-3) | - | - | - | 0.1% | 3.8% | 35.5% | 60.5% | - | 1.4 |
| Washington StateWSU(0-5) | - | - | - | - | - | 10.3% | 63.1% | 26.6% | 0.8 |
Data from 2026-11-02
Who is still alive for the PAC 12 Championship Game?
As of Latest, Boise State (99.7%), Oregon State (50.8%) and Fresno State (24.9%) currently have the best odds to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, but with so much of the season left, the race is still wide open.
What is the most likely PAC 12 Championship Game matchup?
Boise State vs. Oregon State is the most likely PAC 12 Championship Game matchup at 50.5%, followed by Boise State vs. Fresno State (24.9%) and Boise State vs. Texas State (17.0%).
What is the biggest game in the PAC 12 Championship Game race this week?
Oregon State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Texas State would put its PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 71.3%, while a loss would drop them to 5.3%.
Which PAC 12 contender can least afford to lose again?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 86.5%; even one more loss drops that to 4.8%.