Oregon StateBeavers
5-3 2nd (3-1) in P12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
50.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Oregon State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Oregon State has a 50.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Oregon State need to do to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Oregon State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 68.3%.
What is the biggest game this week for Oregon State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds?
Oregon State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Texas State would put its PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 71.3%, while a loss would drop them to 5.3%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L20-33 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L24-35 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W52-17 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W33-7 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W56-26 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W66-14 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W48-30 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | L22-38 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:69% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:21% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:84% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 6-1 | 12.4% | 100.0% |
| 5-2 | 53.3% | 68.3% |
| 4-3 | 30.3% | 6.5% |
| 3-4 | 4.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 50.8% (-0.0%) | 51.7% (+0.9%) | ||
| 43.3% (-7.4%) | 63.9% (+13.1%) | ||
| 5.3% (-45.5%) | 71.3% (+20.5%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Colorado StateOregon StateCCG: 90.2% • Scenario: 1.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oregon StateCCG: 71.9% • Scenario: 68.9%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02