Oregon St

Oregon StateBeavers

0-2 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

15.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Oregon State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Oregon State has a 15.3% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Oregon StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@HoustonHOU
L20-33
29/12
vsTexas TechTTU
L24-35
39/19
vsMontanaMONT
Win prob:90%
49/26
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:80%
510/03
@Colorado StCSU
Win prob:45%
610/10
vsSan Diego StSDSU
Win prob:47%
710/17
vsWashington StWSU
Win prob:68%
910/31
@Fresno StFRES
Win prob:31%
1011/07
vsTexas StTXST
Win prob:70%
1111/14
@Boise StBOIS
Win prob:10%
1211/21
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:66%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
0.2%
100.0%
6-1
3.0%
99.1%
5-2
13.8%
67.0%
4-3
28.5%
9.8%
3-4
30.9%
0.0%
2-5
17.8%
0%
1-6
5.2%
0%
0-7
0.6%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Oregon St CCG Opponents

if Oregon St makes the CCG

BOISBoise St
83.2%
FRESFresno St
6.9%
SDSUSan Diego St
6.0%
CSUColorado St
1.7%
USUUtah St
0.9%
WSUWashington St
0.7%
TXSTTexas St
0.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StThis Week's Impact

Game
Oregon StCCG OddsAway Wins
Oregon StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
15.2%
(-0.0%)		15.3%
(+0.1%)
DuquesneDUQ@Washington StWSU
15.2%
(-0.1%)		15.3%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
15.5%
(+0.2%)		15.3%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
15.3%
(-0.0%)		15.4%
(+0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
15.3%
(-0.0%)		15.3%
(+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@Boise StBOIS
15.3%
(+0.0%)		15.3%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
15.2%
(-0.0%)		15.3%
(+0.1%)
MontanaMONT@Oregon StORST
15.2%
(-0.1%)		15.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Oregon St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.1%
2.3%
Washington St
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Montana
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado St
99.7%
0.2%
Utah St
99.6%
<0.1%
Boise St
99.0%
1.3%
Fresno St
98.9%
0.4%
San Diego St
98.6%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
69.4%
10.8%
UTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontana
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUTEP
99.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StUTEP
99.2%
<0.1%
Boise StUTEP
99.1%
0.3%
Fresno StMontana
99.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas St
98.7%
<0.1%
Boise StMontana
98.7%
0.1%
MontanaSan Diego St
98.3%
<0.1%
San Diego StUTEP
97.5%
<0.1%
Texas StUtah St
93.7%
<0.1%
Texas StWashington St
92.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas St
91.2%
<0.1%
Utah StWashington St
90.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StWashington St
90.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah St
90.2%
0.1%
Boise StWashington St
85.3%
0.6%
Boise StTexas St
84.9%
0.6%
Boise StUtah St
81.1%
0.7%
Fresno StTexas St
80.6%
0.1%
Boise StColorado St
80.0%
1.6%
Fresno StWashington St
79.9%
0.2%
Colorado StFresno St
78.3%
0.4%
Fresno StUtah St
76.6%
0.2%
San Diego StWashington St
73.9%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas St
73.8%
<0.1%
San Diego StUtah St
70.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
69.8%
0.2%
Boise StFresno St
55.2%
3.0%
Fresno StSan Diego St
54.2%
0.4%
Boise StSan Diego St
44.6%
1.5%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com