Oregon St

Oregon StateBeavers

0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

9.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Oregon State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Oregon State has a 9.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oregon State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Oregon StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:15%
9/12
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:7%
9/19
vsMontanaMONT
Win prob:90%
9/26
@UTEPUTEP
Win prob:64%
10/03
@Colorado StCSU
Win prob:54%
10/10
vsSan Diego StSDSU
Win prob:34%
10/17
vsWashington StWSU
Win prob:46%
10/31
@Fresno StFRES
Win prob:32%
11/07
vsTexas StTXST
Win prob:47%
11/14
@Boise StBOIS
Win prob:19%
11/21
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:53%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
0.1%
100.0%
6-1
1.6%
99.6%
5-2
7.9%
74.8%
4-3
20.2%
11.0%
3-4
30.4%
0%
2-5
25.6%
0%
1-6
12.0%
0%
0-7
2.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Oregon St CCG Opponents

if Oregon St makes the CCG

Boise StateBoise St
46.8%
San Diego StateSan Diego St
25.8%
Fresno StateFresno St
11.4%
Texas StateTexas St
8.1%
Washington StateWashington St
7.9%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StThis Week's Impact

Game
Oregon StCCG OddsAway
Oregon StCCG OddsHome

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Oregon StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Oregon St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
96.9%
0.2%
Boise StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHouston
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHouston
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHouston
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego St
83.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashington St
66.7%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas St
40.0%
<0.1%
Boise StUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
86.9%
1.8%
Colorado StHoustonTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHouston
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas Tech
100.0%
0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonMontana
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
UTEPUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHouston
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaSan Diego StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontana
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StMontana
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas Tech
99.2%
0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas Tech
99.2%
0.2%
HoustonTexas TechUtah St
98.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas Tech
95.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas TechUtah St
94.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas St
94.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas TechUTEP
92.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas TechWashington St
88.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas Tech
87.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTexas Tech
87.5%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StUtah St
85.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonUtah St
85.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas TechWashington St
82.8%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechUtah St
82.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechUtah St
81.8%
<0.1%
Boise StUTEPWashington St
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonWashington St
80.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas TechUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonUtah St
78.6%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechWashington St
77.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StTexas Tech
77.3%
<0.1%
Texas TechUtah StWashington St
76.9%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StWashington St
76.9%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas Tech
75.6%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StTexas Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHouston
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego St
73.7%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechUtah St
72.7%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas St
69.2%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechWashington St
68.4%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas StTexas Tech
68.3%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechWashington St
66.7%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas St
66.7%
<0.1%
Texas StUtah StWashington St
66.7%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas Tech
63.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas Tech
62.5%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StWashington St
62.5%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonWashington St
61.1%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUtah StWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas StUTEP
33.3%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas StUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas St
33.3%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StUTEP
25.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StFresno St
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StWashington St
25.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StUtah St
12.5%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas St
9.1%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
56.3%
6.9%
Boise StMontanaTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUTEPUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaTexas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaTexas TechWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaSan Diego StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas TechUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonMontanaWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonMontana
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StSan Diego StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaSan Diego StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaSan Diego StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas TechUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaSan Diego StTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontanaTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaTexas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas StTexas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaTexas StTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StMontanaTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonMontanaSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHoustonUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas TechUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaTexas StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontanaUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaSan Diego StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMontanaSan Diego StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaTexas TechUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaTexas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaTexas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StMontanaSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonMontanaUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaTexas TechUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StMontanaTexas StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaSan Diego StUTEP
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaUTEPWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
MontanaSan Diego StUTEPUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas TechUTEP
98.6%
0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas TechWashington St
97.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas TechUtah St
95.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHoustonTexas Tech
94.2%
0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas TechUtah St
92.2%
0.1%
Boise StFresno StMontanaTexas Tech
91.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego StTexas Tech
90.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechUTEPWashington St
90.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonTexas Tech
89.1%
0.2%
Colorado StFresno StTexas TechUTEP
87.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StTexas TechUTEP
86.7%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas StUTEP
85.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas TechUTEPWashington St
84.6%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StTexas TechWashington St
84.3%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUtah StWashington St
83.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas StTexas Tech
83.9%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonUTEP
83.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas TechUTEP
82.6%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechUTEPUtah St
81.8%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechUTEPUtah St
81.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas TechUtah St
80.6%
0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas StTexas Tech
80.6%
0.2%
Boise StHoustonTexas TechUtah St
80.3%
0.2%
Fresno StTexas TechUTEPUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechUTEPWashington St
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas TechWashington St
78.4%
0.2%
HoustonTexas StTexas TechUtah St
78.2%
<0.1%
Boise StMontanaTexas StTexas Tech
77.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego StUTEP
77.8%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechUTEPWashington St
75.9%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHoustonMontana
75.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas StUTEP
75.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaSan Diego StTexas Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
MontanaSan Diego StTexas TechUtah St
75.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas TechWashington St
73.7%
0.3%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas TechWashington St
72.5%
0.1%
Fresno StHoustonUTEPUtah St
71.4%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHoustonUTEP
70.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego StTexas Tech
70.2%
0.3%
Boise StHoustonTexas StTexas Tech
70.0%
0.3%
Boise StFresno StHoustonTexas Tech
68.0%
0.6%
Fresno StHoustonTexas StUTEP
66.7%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas StTexas Tech
66.4%
0.1%
Boise StTexas StTexas TechUTEP
65.4%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas TechUTEP
62.5%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas TechUTEP
60.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonUTEPWashington St
60.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonSan Diego StTexas Tech
52.8%
0.5%
Boise StColorado StTexas StUTEP
50.0%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StUTEPWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
MontanaTexas StTexas TechWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonUTEPUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonSan Diego StUTEP
48.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas TechUtah St
47.4%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonUtah St
44.4%
<0.1%
Fresno StMontanaTexas TechWashington St
40.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas StUtah St
40.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas TechUtah St
37.5%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StTexas TechUTEP
36.4%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontanaWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas StUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StUTEPWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHoustonWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StUTEPUtah St
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StUTEPWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas TechWashington St
26.8%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonWashington St
26.7%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonMontanaSan Diego St
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonUtah StWashington St
25.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego StUtah St
25.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTexas TechUtah StWashington St
23.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHoustonTexas St
22.2%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StFresno StHouston
21.1%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHoustonUtah St
20.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego StTexas St
20.0%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas StUtah St
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonSan Diego StWashington St
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas StTexas Tech
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTexas TechUtah St
20.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas StTexas Tech
19.4%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas StTexas TechUtah St
18.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego StWashington St
17.6%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas StTexas Tech
17.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas TechWashington St
16.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StTexas TechWashington St
16.7%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas TechUtah StWashington St
15.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StSan Diego StTexas Tech
15.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StHoustonUtah St
14.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StHoustonTexas StWashington St
14.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonTexas StWashington St
14.3%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas StUtah StWashington St
14.3%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StFresno StTexas Tech
13.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StTexas TechUtah St
13.6%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas StTexas TechWashington St
12.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas TechWashington St
11.8%
0.1%
Boise StHoustonTexas StWashington St
11.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas TechUtah St
11.1%
<0.1%
HoustonSan Diego StTexas StWashington St
11.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonSan Diego St
10.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas TechWashington St
10.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas TechUtah St
9.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHoustonTexas St
9.5%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StSan Diego StTexas Tech
9.2%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StHoustonTexas St
9.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StTexas TechWashington St
9.1%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas TechUtah St
7.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas StTexas Tech
7.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas StTexas Tech
7.5%
0.1%
Fresno StTexas TechUtah StWashington St
7.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StTexas TechUtah St
7.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas TechWashington St
6.9%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StTexas TechUtah St
6.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StSan Diego StTexas Tech
6.1%
0.2%
Boise StFresno StHoustonWashington St
6.1%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonSan Diego StUtah St
5.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego StTexas St
5.6%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas TechUtah StWashington St
5.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StHoustonSan Diego StUtah St
5.3%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas StTexas Tech
4.3%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StHoustonSan Diego St
3.7%
<0.1%
Boise StHoustonSan Diego StWashington St
3.6%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas TechWashington St
2.9%
0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com