Utah StateAggies
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Utah State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Utah State has a 10.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Utah State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:13% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:15% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:22% | ||
| 10/09 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 1.8% | 99.8% |
| 5-2 | 9.0% | 72.8% |
| 4-3 | 22.4% | 10.2% |
| 3-4 | 31.1% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 24.1% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 1.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
94.2%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
81.5%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.2%
0.1%56.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
51.6%
7.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%91.0%
<0.1%90.0%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%85.3%
0.2%83.7%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
0.2%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.9%
0.2%72.6%
0.3%72.2%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
0.2%70.8%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.2%
0.3%69.8%
<0.1%69.8%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
0.4%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.3%
0.6%52.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.3%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.4%
0.2%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26