Utah St

Utah StateAggies

0-2 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Utah State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Utah State has a 6.3% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Utah State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Utah StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsIdaho StateIDST
L17-29
29/12
@WashingtonWASH
L14-16
39/19
@UtahUTAH
Win prob:2%
49/26
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:65%
510/03
@Boise StBOIS
Win prob:7%
610/09
vsWashington StWSU
Win prob:61%
810/24
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:46%
910/31
vsColorado StCSU
Win prob:54%
1011/07
vsFresno StFRES
Win prob:39%
1111/14
@San Diego StSDSU
Win prob:24%
1211/21
@Oregon StORST
Win prob:34%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Utah StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
0.0%
100.0%
6-1
0.8%
99.2%
5-2
5.4%
68.1%
4-3
17.6%
10.4%
3-4
30.5%
0.0%
2-5
28.9%
0%
1-6
14.1%
0%
0-7
2.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Utah St CCG Opponents

if Utah St makes the CCG

BOISBoise St
83.0%
SDSUSan Diego St
6.1%
FRESFresno St
6.0%
ORSTOregon St
2.0%
CSUColorado St
1.6%
WSUWashington St
0.8%
TXSTTexas St
0.5%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Utah StThis Week's Impact

Game
Utah StCCG OddsAway Wins
Utah StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
6.3%
(+0.0%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
DuquesneDUQ@Washington StWSU
6.3%
(-0.1%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
6.4%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
6.3%
(-0.0%)		6.5%
(+0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
6.3%
(-0.0%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@Boise StBOIS
6.2%
(-0.1%)		6.3%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
6.3%
(+0.0%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)
MontanaMONT@Oregon StORST
6.4%
(+0.1%)		6.3%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Utah StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Utah St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.4%
<0.1%
Texas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado St
100.0%
<0.1%
Washington St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise St
98.2%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
95.8%
0.6%
TroyUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
UtahWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StTroy
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUtah
99.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah
99.4%
<0.1%
Boise StUtah
99.1%
0.3%
San Diego StUtah
98.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah
98.8%
<0.1%
Boise StWashington St
94.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas St
92.9%
<0.1%
Boise StTexas St
87.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon St
85.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon St
80.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado St
78.6%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexas St
77.8%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon St
76.2%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas St
76.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
72.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashington St
66.7%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego St
66.7%
<0.1%
San Diego StWashington St
63.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego St
57.9%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego St
56.8%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno St
49.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Utah StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com