Fresno St

Fresno StateBulldogs

1-1 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

32.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Fresno State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Fresno State has a 32.7% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Fresno StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/04
@USCUSC
L0-39
29/12
vsSacramento StSAC
W49-3
39/19
@San Jose StSJSU
Win prob:74%
49/26
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:91%
510/03
@Washington StWSU
Win prob:64%
610/10
vsBoise StBOIS
Win prob:29%
710/17
@San Diego StSDSU
Win prob:42%
910/31
vsOregon StORST
Win prob:69%
1011/07
@Utah StUSU
Win prob:61%
1111/14
@Texas StTXST
Win prob:66%
1211/21
vsColorado StCSU
Win prob:72%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Fresno StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
1.6%
100.0%
6-1
10.0%
99.2%
5-2
24.6%
70.5%
4-3
30.9%
12.5%
3-4
22.0%
0.0%
2-5
8.9%
0%
1-6
1.9%
0%
0-7
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Fresno St CCG Opponents

if Fresno St makes the CCG

BOISBoise St
82.0%
SDSUSan Diego St
9.0%
ORSTOregon St
3.2%
CSUColorado St
2.8%
USUUtah St
1.2%
WSUWashington St
1.1%
TXSTTexas St
0.8%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Fresno StThis Week's Impact

Game
Fresno StCCG OddsAway Wins
Fresno StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
32.7%
(+0.0%)		32.6%
(-0.1%)
DuquesneDUQ@Washington StWSU
32.8%
(+0.2%)		32.6%
(-0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
32.6%
(-0.1%)		32.7%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
32.7%
(+0.0%)		32.5%
(-0.2%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
32.6%
(-0.0%)		32.7%
(+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@Boise StBOIS
32.6%
(-0.0%)		32.7%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
32.7%
(+0.0%)		32.6%
(-0.1%)
MontanaMONT@Oregon StORST
32.5%
(-0.1%)		32.7%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Fresno StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Fresno St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.1%
Any 1 loss
99.2%
7.2%
San Jose St
100.0%
0.4%
Rice
100.0%
0.1%
Washington St
99.9%
0.6%
Texas St
99.9%
0.6%
Utah St
99.7%
0.7%
Colorado St
99.7%
0.4%
Boise St
99.3%
2.6%
Oregon St
99.2%
0.5%
San Diego St
97.9%
1.5%
Any 2 losses
75.0%
19.6%
RiceWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StRice
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Jose StWashington St
100.0%
0.2%
Colorado StSan Jose St
99.9%
0.1%
San Jose StTexas St
99.9%
0.2%
San Jose StUtah St
99.8%
0.2%
RiceTexas St
99.8%
<0.1%
RiceUtah St
99.7%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Jose St
99.3%
0.9%
Boise StRice
99.1%
0.3%
Oregon StSan Jose St
98.9%
0.2%
Oregon StRice
98.3%
<0.1%
RiceSan Diego St
97.9%
0.1%
San Diego StSan Jose St
97.8%
0.5%
Texas StWashington St
91.9%
0.3%
Texas StUtah St
90.1%
0.4%
Utah StWashington St
89.7%
0.4%
Boise StWashington St
87.6%
1.5%
Colorado StWashington St
86.8%
0.2%
Boise StTexas St
86.5%
1.3%
Colorado StTexas St
86.1%
0.2%
Boise StUtah St
84.5%
1.6%
Colorado StUtah St
84.2%
0.3%
Oregon StWashington St
80.0%
0.3%
Oregon StTexas St
79.3%
0.2%
Oregon StUtah St
77.8%
0.3%
Boise StColorado St
75.2%
1.0%
Colorado StOregon St
74.0%
0.2%
San Diego StWashington St
70.3%
0.8%
San Diego StTexas St
69.0%
0.8%
San Diego StUtah St
67.8%
0.9%
Boise StOregon St
63.9%
1.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
61.7%
0.6%
Oregon StSan Diego St
53.9%
0.6%
Boise StSan Diego St
46.7%
3.5%
Any 3 losses
28.3%
28.6%
Colorado StRiceSan Jose St
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSan Jose StTexas St
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSan Jose StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceSan Jose StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StRiceSan Jose St
99.6%
<0.1%
RiceSan Diego StSan Jose St
99.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StRiceSan Jose St
96.8%
<0.1%
San Jose StTexas StWashington St
91.7%
0.1%
San Jose StUtah StWashington St
91.6%
0.1%
San Jose StTexas StUtah St
90.9%
0.1%
RiceTexas StWashington St
89.7%
<0.1%
RiceUtah StWashington St
89.2%
<0.1%
RiceTexas StUtah St
87.8%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Jose StWashington St
87.7%
0.5%
Colorado StSan Jose StWashington St
87.7%
<0.1%
Boise StRiceWashington St
86.7%
0.1%
Boise StRiceTexas St
86.4%
0.1%
Colorado StRiceWashington St
86.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceTexas St
86.1%
<0.1%
Oregon StRiceWashington St
86.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Jose StUtah St
85.8%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Jose StTexas St
85.7%
0.5%
Colorado StSan Jose StTexas St
84.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StRiceUtah St
84.1%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Jose StUtah St
83.6%
0.6%
Boise StRiceUtah St
81.8%
0.1%
Oregon StSan Jose StUtah St
79.8%
0.1%
Oregon StSan Jose StTexas St
79.4%
<0.1%
Oregon StRiceUtah St
78.4%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StRice
76.8%
0.1%
Oregon StSan Jose StWashington St
76.4%
0.1%
Oregon StRiceTexas St
76.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StSan Jose St
74.7%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StSan Jose St
74.6%
0.4%
RiceSan Diego StWashington St
73.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StRice
71.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StSan Jose StWashington St
71.0%
0.3%
RiceSan Diego StTexas St
68.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StSan Jose StTexas St
68.0%
0.3%
San Diego StSan Jose StUtah St
67.6%
0.3%
RiceSan Diego StUtah St
66.6%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StRice
62.9%
0.1%
Boise StOregon StSan Jose St
62.5%
0.4%
Colorado StSan Diego StSan Jose St
61.3%
0.2%
Colorado StRiceSan Diego St
60.9%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StSan Jose St
51.9%
0.2%
Oregon StRiceSan Diego St
49.7%
<0.1%
Boise StRiceSan Diego St
46.9%
0.3%
Boise StSan Diego StSan Jose St
46.3%
1.3%
Boise StTexas StWashington St
28.8%
0.8%
Boise StUtah StWashington St
27.0%
0.9%
Texas StUtah StWashington St
26.9%
0.2%
Boise StTexas StUtah St
25.1%
0.9%
Colorado StTexas StWashington St
23.4%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StWashington St
20.8%
0.5%
Colorado StTexas StUtah St
20.2%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas St
19.4%
0.5%
Colorado StUtah StWashington St
18.9%
0.1%
Oregon StTexas StWashington St
17.6%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StUtah St
17.2%
0.6%
Oregon StUtah StWashington St
16.6%
0.2%
Boise StOregon StWashington St
15.5%
0.6%
Oregon StTexas StUtah St
14.5%
0.1%
San Diego StTexas StWashington St
14.0%
0.4%
Boise StOregon StTexas St
13.8%
0.6%
Colorado StOregon StTexas St
12.3%
0.1%
Colorado StOregon StWashington St
12.1%
0.1%
San Diego StUtah StWashington St
12.1%
0.5%
Boise StOregon StUtah St
12.1%
0.7%
San Diego StTexas StUtah St
11.7%
0.5%
Colorado StOregon StUtah St
9.8%
0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StWashington St
9.8%
2.0%
Boise StColorado StOregon St
9.6%
0.4%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas St
9.1%
1.9%
Colorado StSan Diego StWashington St
9.0%
0.3%
Boise StSan Diego StUtah St
8.5%
2.3%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas St
8.2%
0.3%
Colorado StSan Diego StUtah St
7.6%
0.4%
Oregon StSan Diego StWashington St
7.0%
0.4%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexas St
7.0%
0.3%
Oregon StSan Diego StUtah St
6.0%
0.4%
Boise StColorado StSan Diego St
5.8%
1.4%
Colorado StOregon StSan Diego St
4.1%
0.2%
Boise StOregon StSan Diego St
4.0%
1.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Fresno StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com