Fresno StateBulldogs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Fresno State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Fresno State has a 25.0% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/04 | Win prob:10% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:77% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 1.0% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 6.6% | 99.6% |
| 5-2 | 19.4% | 73.8% |
| 4-3 | 29.8% | 10.5% |
| 3-4 | 26.3% | 0.0% |
| 2-5 | 13.1% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.7%
0.6%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
94.8%
3.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.6%
0.5%99.1%
0.6%93.8%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
73.3%
12.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.0%
0.2%98.0%
0.1%97.8%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.9%
0.1%89.5%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.3%
0.4%88.2%
0.3%88.1%
0.1%86.1%
0.2%85.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
0.3%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
0.4%80.3%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
0.2%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.0%
0.6%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.6%
0.3%72.7%
<0.1%71.8%
0.7%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.5%
0.6%69.2%
0.6%69.1%
0.6%68.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.3%
0.9%44.2%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
38.3%
20.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%94.7%
0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.2%
<0.1%92.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.4%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.9%
<0.1%86.5%
0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.6%
0.1%84.8%
0.1%83.6%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
<0.1%82.2%
0.1%81.9%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.2%79.4%
0.1%79.1%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%78.9%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%76.0%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
0.1%74.3%
0.1%74.2%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.3%70.4%
0.2%67.1%
0.2%67.0%
0.2%66.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.2%65.0%
0.3%64.9%
0.2%64.7%
0.3%62.8%
0.2%62.4%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.5%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.2%
0.4%46.6%
0.4%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.0%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
0.2%27.8%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.6%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
0.2%18.6%
<0.1%18.4%
0.2%18.2%
0.1%18.2%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.7%
0.2%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.2%13.9%
0.3%13.8%
0.2%13.3%
0.3%13.3%
0.3%12.9%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
0.4%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
0.3%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.6%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
0.4%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
0.6%9.2%
0.6%9.2%
0.3%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.8%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
1.0%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.9%4.8%
0.8%4.7%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
0.4%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26