Fresno StateBulldogs
5-3 T4th (2-2) in P12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
24.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Fresno State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Fresno State has a 24.9% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Fresno State need to do to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 86.5%; even one more loss drops that to 4.8%.
What is the biggest game this week for Fresno State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds?
Fresno State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Utah State would put its PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 36.5%, while a loss would drop them to 4.5%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/04 | L0-39 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W49-3 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W26-10 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W38-24 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W26-6 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | L31-38 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | L23-26 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W38-22 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:64% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:44% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:92% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 26.0% | 86.5% |
| 4-3 | 49.6% | 4.8% |
| 3-4 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 24.9% (+0.0%) | 24.7% (-0.2%) | ||
| 36.5% (+11.6%) | 4.5% (-20.4%) | ||
| 32.0% (+7.1%) | 21.7% (-3.2%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Fresno State
Colorado State
Texas StateCCG: 42.0% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Fresno StateCCG: 37.0% • Scenario: 63.7%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02