San Diego StateAztecs
4-5 3rd (3-2) in P12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.8%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is San Diego State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
San Diego State has a 4.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. San Diego State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What is the biggest game this week for San Diego State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds?
The biggest swing game for San Diego State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Texas State win would boost them to 10.7%, while a Oregon State win would leave them at 2.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W53-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | L13-26 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | L16-41 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W31-29 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | L14-66 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | W26-23 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | L49-56 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W26-20 | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:44% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:3% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 1.2% | 68.0% |
| 4-3 | 44.7% | 8.7% |
| 3-4 | 54.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 4.8% (+0.0%) | 4.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 2.7% (-2.1%) | 8.4% (+3.6%) | ||
| 10.7% (+5.9%) | 2.1% (-2.7%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Utah State
Boise State
Texas StateCCG: 20.3% • Scenario: 10.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas StateCCG: 11.4% • Scenario: 31.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02