San Diego StateAztecs
1-1 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
35.4%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is San Diego State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
San Diego State has a 35.4% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. San Diego State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W53-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L10-28 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:54% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:43% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:79% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:53% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:78% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:76% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:16% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 10.9% | 99.2% |
| 5-2 | 27.5% | 70.8% |
| 4-3 | 32.1% | 12.0% |
| 3-4 | 20.1% | 0.0% |
| 2-5 | 6.8% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 35.4% (+0.0%) | 35.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 35.3% (-0.1%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 35.0% (-0.5%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 35.4% (+0.0%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 35.5% (+0.0%) | 35.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 35.6% (+0.1%) | 35.4% (-0.0%) | ||
| 35.5% (+0.0%) | 35.4% (-0.1%) | ||
| 35.4% (-0.0%) | 35.5% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
99.4%
3.2%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.9%
<0.1%
99.7%
0.2%
99.6%
0.1%
99.4%
0.3%
99.1%
1.6%
98.4%
0.2%Any 2 losses
84.3%
12.3%100.0%
0.3%99.9%
0.1%99.9%
<0.1%99.8%
0.3%99.8%
<0.1%99.7%
0.1%99.7%
<0.1%99.7%
0.2%99.7%
0.2%99.5%
0.4%99.4%
0.1%99.1%
2.1%99.0%
1.3%98.5%
0.3%98.4%
0.2%92.0%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%84.6%
0.5%82.4%
0.4%82.1%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.2%
0.2%78.5%
0.5%77.3%
1.2%73.4%
<0.1%70.5%
0.2%69.5%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%67.9%
1.4%64.0%
0.2%46.8%
1.1%Any 3 losses
55.8%
24.3%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.1%99.8%
0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.5%
0.3%99.3%
1.7%98.4%
0.2%92.3%
<0.1%91.6%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.5%
0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.9%
0.1%84.3%
0.6%83.5%
0.4%81.9%
0.4%81.7%
0.5%81.5%
0.2%81.5%
0.1%80.5%
0.4%80.4%
<0.1%80.3%
0.1%80.1%
0.3%79.2%
0.7%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
1.6%77.8%
1.0%74.7%
<0.1%73.4%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%69.9%
0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
0.2%69.1%
<0.1%68.2%
1.8%68.1%
1.2%63.7%
0.2%63.4%
0.3%46.3%
1.0%46.1%
1.5%24.0%
<0.1%23.4%
0.1%21.1%
0.1%21.0%
0.3%20.9%
0.4%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%19.5%
0.1%19.3%
<0.1%18.7%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%17.9%
0.4%16.3%
<0.1%16.3%
0.4%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
0.4%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.0%
1.1%12.6%
0.5%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
0.3%8.5%
0.3%8.5%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
0.4%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
0.9%6.5%
0.1%4.9%
1.0%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17