San Diego StateAztecs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
49.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is San Diego State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
San Diego State has a 49.2% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. San Diego State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:38% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 4.2% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 18.0% | 99.7% |
| 5-2 | 30.7% | 76.7% |
| 4-3 | 27.5% | 12.9% |
| 3-4 | 14.5% | 0.0% |
| 2-5 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%Any 1 loss
99.8%
4.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.5%
1.0%99.4%
0.3%Any 2 losses
91.8%
12.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.7%
0.3%99.7%
0.3%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
1.1%99.3%
0.6%99.1%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.4%
0.2%96.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
0.1%94.9%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.0%
0.1%90.4%
<0.1%89.3%
0.2%87.6%
0.1%87.6%
0.1%87.2%
0.3%86.5%
0.1%86.0%
0.1%81.5%
0.1%81.0%
0.1%77.6%
0.5%76.2%
0.1%76.2%
0.1%75.7%
0.3%71.4%
0.2%67.1%
0.5%66.4%
0.4%61.3%
0.6%Any 3 losses
72.4%
22.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.7%99.6%
0.3%99.6%
1.0%97.6%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.5%
0.1%92.8%
0.1%92.7%
0.1%91.4%
0.1%91.2%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%91.0%
<0.1%90.2%
0.4%90.1%
0.3%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.8%
0.2%87.6%
0.1%87.2%
0.2%86.7%
<0.1%86.6%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.3%
0.1%86.1%
0.1%85.9%
<0.1%85.3%
0.1%85.0%
0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.6%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.9%
0.2%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
0.5%78.9%
0.2%78.7%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.5%
0.2%78.4%
<0.1%77.8%
0.1%77.7%
0.3%77.0%
0.3%76.9%
<0.1%76.3%
0.4%75.9%
0.2%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%74.5%
0.4%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.6%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%70.1%
0.4%69.2%
0.5%69.0%
0.3%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
0.3%66.0%
0.2%62.0%
0.5%61.7%
<0.1%61.6%
0.6%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.4%59.9%
0.4%56.6%
0.3%56.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%25.2%
0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.6%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.2%16.0%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.8%
0.2%12.7%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.9%
0.2%8.4%
0.2%8.4%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%7.9%
0.2%7.6%
0.3%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.3%4.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
49.6%
23.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.6%99.3%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%94.1%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.8%
<0.1%92.7%
0.2%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
0.2%91.7%
<0.1%91.6%
0.3%91.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.4%
0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.4%
0.2%88.3%
<0.1%88.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.2%
0.1%86.4%
0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.0%
0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.3%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.8%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
0.5%80.8%
<0.1%80.4%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
<0.1%79.5%
0.2%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.6%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%78.2%
<0.1%78.1%
0.4%78.0%
0.3%78.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%76.3%
0.2%75.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.6%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.8%
0.3%69.3%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.1%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%67.1%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
0.4%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
0.2%63.2%
<0.1%62.4%
0.4%61.9%
0.2%61.3%
0.3%60.7%
<0.1%58.5%
0.4%58.3%
0.5%58.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.1%
0.2%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.0%
0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.4%
0.2%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%16.3%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.3%12.4%
0.2%12.4%
0.3%12.3%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
0.3%11.4%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.2%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.8%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.4%
0.3%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26