Washington StateCougars
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Washington State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Washington State has a 19.4% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Washington State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/06 | Win prob:17% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:25% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:30% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/09 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 4.5% | 99.7% |
| 5-2 | 15.5% | 74.3% |
| 4-3 | 27.6% | 10.3% |
| 3-4 | 28.6% | 0.0% |
| 2-5 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
95.9%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
83.5%
4.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.1%99.3%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%99.1%
0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
61.7%
11.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
0.4%99.7%
0.3%99.6%
0.3%99.5%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%93.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.8%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.3%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.8%
0.1%86.2%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%84.4%
0.1%83.9%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.2%81.0%
0.1%80.2%
0.1%80.0%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.2%
0.1%78.8%
0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
0.1%73.2%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%70.2%
0.2%69.2%
0.2%69.1%
0.1%68.7%
0.2%67.8%
0.2%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
0.2%65.3%
0.3%64.6%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.2%
0.1%60.6%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.9%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26