Texas StateBobcats
4-4 T4th (2-2) in P12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
17.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Texas State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Texas State has a 17.1% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Texas State need to do to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 98.5%.
What is the biggest game this week for Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds?
Texas State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Oregon State would put its PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 50.6%, while a loss would drop them to 1.9%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L7-59 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L26-31 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W49-35 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W63-10 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | L29-31 | |
| 7 | 10/15 | W66-27 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W20-17 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | L45-46 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:56% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:85% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | 14.7% | 98.5% |
| 4-3 | 46.9% | 5.5% |
| 3-4 | 33.8% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 4.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 17.1% (+0.0%) | 17.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 17.7% (+0.7%) | 15.8% (-1.2%) | ||
| 50.6% (+33.6%) | 1.9% (-15.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Fresno State
Colorado StateTexas StateCCG: 50.8% • Scenario: 0.8%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Texas StateCCG: 50.3% • Scenario: 31.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG ProbabilityData from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02