Texas St

Texas StateBobcats

0-2 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

4.8%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Texas State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Texas State has a 4.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Texas StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@TexasTEX
L7-59
29/12
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
L26-31
39/19
vsNorth TexasUNT
Win prob:29%
49/26
vsIncarnate WordUIW
Win prob:90%
510/03
@San Diego StSDSU
Win prob:21%
710/15
vsColorado StCSU
Win prob:49%
810/24
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:54%
910/31
@Boise StBOIS
Win prob:6%
1011/07
@Oregon StORST
Win prob:30%
1111/14
vsFresno StFRES
Win prob:34%
1211/21
vsWashington StWSU
Win prob:56%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
0.0%
100.0%
6-1
0.5%
99.3%
5-2
4.1%
67.7%
4-3
15.0%
10.1%
3-4
29.4%
0.0%
2-5
30.9%
0%
1-6
16.6%
0%
0-7
3.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Texas St CCG Opponents

if Texas St makes the CCG

BOISBoise St
84.1%
SDSUSan Diego St
5.9%
FRESFresno St
5.4%
ORSTOregon St
1.9%
CSUColorado St
1.5%
WSUWashington St
0.6%
USUUtah St
0.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StThis Week's Impact

Game
Texas StCCG OddsAway Wins
Texas StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)
DuquesneDUQ@Washington StWSU
5.0%
(+0.2%)		4.8%
(-0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)
South DakotaSDAK@Boise StBOIS
4.8%
(+0.1%)		4.8%
(-0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)
MontanaMONT@Oregon StORST
4.8%
(+0.0%)		4.8%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.4%
0.1%
Colorado St
100.0%
<0.1%
North Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Washington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate Word
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise St
99.6%
<0.1%
Oregon St
99.0%
<0.1%
Fresno St
98.9%
<0.1%
San Diego St
98.4%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
75.0%
1.4%
North TexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate Word
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego St
99.3%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth Texas
99.1%
0.2%
Boise StIncarnate Word
98.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Texas
98.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate Word
92.3%
<0.1%
Oregon StWashington St
91.3%
<0.1%
Utah StWashington St
90.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah St
89.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon St
86.7%
<0.1%
Boise StWashington St
86.1%
<0.1%
Boise StUtah St
84.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno St
81.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado St
80.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashington St
80.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah St
80.2%
<0.1%
San Diego StWashington St
79.9%
<0.1%
Oregon StUtah St
78.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StUtah St
76.8%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon St
75.5%
0.2%
Oregon StSan Diego St
74.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon St
71.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
68.1%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego St
59.3%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno St
55.8%
0.2%
Boise StSan Diego St
53.6%
0.3%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com