Texas St

Texas StateBobcats

0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

20.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Texas State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Texas State has a 20.1% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Texas StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
Win prob:2%
9/12
Win prob:58%
9/19
Win prob:61%
9/26
Win prob:90%
10/03
Win prob:32%
10/15
Win prob:73%
10/24
Win prob:61%
10/31
Win prob:26%
11/07
Win prob:53%
11/14
Win prob:52%
11/21
Win prob:55%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
0.6%
100.0%
6-1
5.0%
99.4%
5-2
16.5%
71.8%
4-3
29.0%
9.7%
3-4
28.1%
0%
2-5
15.7%
0%
1-6
4.6%
0%
0-7
0.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Texas St CCG Opponents

if Texas St makes the CCG

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StThis Week's Impact

Game
Texas StCCG OddsAway
Texas StCCG OddsHome

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Texas StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Texas St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
97.2%
2.0%
Incarnate WordTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
0.1%
TexasWashington St
100.0%
0.1%
North TexasTexas
100.0%
0.1%
Colorado StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate Word
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUtah St
100.0%
0.1%
Boise StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
UT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
UT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Utah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas
99.5%
0.4%
Fresno StTexas
99.4%
0.2%
Oregon StTexas
99.3%
0.1%
Boise StTexas
98.7%
0.5%
Boise StUtah St
87.5%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego St
83.3%
<0.1%
San Diego StUtah St
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego St
71.4%
<0.1%
Boise StWashington St
70.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno St
69.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah St
66.7%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego St
66.7%
<0.1%
Oregon StWashington St
66.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno St
66.7%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon St
62.5%
<0.1%
Fresno StWashington St
60.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StWashington St
60.0%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego St
48.3%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
78.8%
7.9%
North TexasTexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
TexasUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
0.1%
Colorado StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
0.1%
UT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StIncarnate Word
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordSan Diego St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StIncarnate Word
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StTexasUT San Antonio
99.1%
0.4%
Boise StNorth TexasTexas
99.1%
0.3%
North TexasOregon StTexas
99.0%
0.1%
San Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
98.8%
0.3%
North TexasSan Diego StTexas
98.7%
0.2%
Boise StIncarnate WordTexas
98.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StTexas
98.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasUtah St
96.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexasUtah St
90.2%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexas
89.6%
0.2%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas
88.5%
0.1%
Colorado StTexasWashington St
87.5%
<0.1%
TexasUtah StWashington St
86.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StTexas
85.2%
0.1%
Oregon StTexasWashington St
85.1%
0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas
83.7%
<0.1%
Boise StUT San AntonioUtah St
83.3%
<0.1%
Boise StUT San AntonioWashington St
83.3%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StTexas
83.1%
0.4%
Fresno StTexasWashington St
81.9%
0.1%
Boise StFresno StNorth Texas
81.8%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexas
80.9%
0.4%
Colorado StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
80.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexasUtah St
79.8%
0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasWashington St
77.8%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
77.8%
<0.1%
Boise StTexasUtah St
76.8%
0.3%
Fresno StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexasUtah St
74.1%
0.2%
Boise StOregon StUT San Antonio
71.4%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
70.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas
69.5%
0.4%
Boise StTexasWashington St
68.5%
0.4%
Boise StFresno StTexas
68.2%
0.5%
San Diego StTexasWashington St
68.0%
0.3%
North TexasOregon StSan Diego St
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasSan Diego St
60.0%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexas
51.4%
1.1%
Boise StNorth TexasUtah St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUT San AntonioWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasSan Diego St
45.5%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StUT San Antonio
44.4%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StUtah St
40.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StFresno St
33.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StUT San AntonioWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StWashington St
30.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StUtah St
25.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StSan Diego St
22.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StSan Diego St
16.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StOregon St
16.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StWashington St
14.3%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StWashington St
10.0%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StUtah St
10.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StSan Diego St
7.1%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StUtah St
6.3%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StWashington St
4.2%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StSan Diego St
4.0%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
41.2%
17.8%
Colorado StTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasTexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordNorth TexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordTexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSan Diego StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasOregon StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasSan Diego StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordOregon StTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordNorth TexasTexas
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordNorth TexasWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordSan Diego StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasOregon StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StIncarnate WordUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasUT San AntonioUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StIncarnate WordUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordTexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StIncarnate WordUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordSan Diego StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordNorth TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasOregon StUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StUT San AntonioWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordUT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasOregon StUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasTexasUtah St
100.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordNorth TexasOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
99.4%
0.2%
Boise StNorth TexasTexasUT San Antonio
99.1%
0.2%
North TexasOregon StTexasWashington St
98.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasUtah St
96.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StTexasUT San Antonio
95.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasOregon StTexas
95.2%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
95.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasTexasWashington St
94.4%
<0.1%
TexasUT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
94.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
93.8%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
93.1%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StTexasUtah St
92.2%
<0.1%
North TexasTexasUtah StWashington St
91.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StNorth TexasSan Diego StTexas
91.2%
0.1%
Incarnate WordTexasUtah StWashington St
90.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StTexasUT San Antonio
89.7%
0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexasUT San Antonio
88.6%
0.1%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StTexasUtah St
88.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexasUT San Antonio
88.2%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StIncarnate WordTexas
88.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StIncarnate WordSan Diego StTexas
87.5%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
87.4%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordOregon StTexas
86.5%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StTexasUtah St
84.6%
<0.1%
Boise StTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
84.4%
0.2%
Boise StColorado StNorth TexasTexas
83.8%
0.1%
Boise StOregon StTexasUT San Antonio
83.5%
0.3%
Fresno StTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
83.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasOregon StTexas
83.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
82.5%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StSan Diego StTexas
82.0%
<0.1%
North TexasOregon StSan Diego StTexas
80.5%
0.2%
Colorado StFresno StIncarnate WordTexas
80.0%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasOregon StTexas
79.9%
0.3%
Boise StNorth TexasTexasUtah St
79.7%
0.2%
Fresno StNorth TexasTexasWashington St
79.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexasUT San AntonioUtah St
78.9%
0.2%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
78.0%
0.3%
Fresno StNorth TexasTexasUtah St
77.6%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StTexasUtah St
77.0%
0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordTexasUtah St
76.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordOregon StTexas
76.9%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StNorth TexasWashington St
75.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordTexasUtah St
74.3%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StTexasWashington St
72.8%
0.2%
Fresno StIncarnate WordSan Diego StTexas
72.2%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordOregon StTexasWashington St
71.4%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
69.9%
0.2%
Fresno StNorth TexasSan Diego StTexas
68.6%
0.2%
Boise StIncarnate WordTexasWashington St
68.3%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasTexasWashington St
66.9%
0.3%
Fresno StNorth TexasOregon StUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasSan Diego StUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordSan Diego StUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StIncarnate WordTexas
66.1%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StNorth TexasTexas
65.0%
0.3%
Fresno StIncarnate WordTexasWashington St
64.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
64.1%
0.3%
Boise StTexasUT San AntonioWashington St
63.9%
0.3%
Boise StFresno StTexasUT San Antonio
61.2%
0.3%
Incarnate WordSan Diego StTexasWashington St
58.3%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasUT San AntonioWashington St
57.1%
<0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasSan Diego StUT San Antonio
53.8%
<0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StUT San AntonioWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordNorth TexasWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Incarnate WordNorth TexasSan Diego StWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StNorth TexasSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StOregon StUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StIncarnate WordNorth TexasSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StIncarnate WordNorth TexasSan Diego St
50.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StUT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
50.0%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexasUT San Antonio
49.8%
0.8%
Boise StIncarnate WordSan Diego StTexas
48.0%
0.1%
Boise StNorth TexasSan Diego StTexas
47.7%
0.7%
Boise StFresno StUT San AntonioWashington St
33.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StOregon StTexas
30.5%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StUT San AntonioUtah St
28.6%
<0.1%
Boise StFresno StNorth TexasUtah St
28.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexasWashington St
28.3%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StOregon StTexas
27.4%
0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexasUtah St
26.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StTexasUtah St
26.1%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StTexasUtah St
25.8%
0.1%
Boise StUT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
25.0%
<0.1%
San Diego StUT San AntonioUtah StWashington St
25.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexasUtah StWashington St
23.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexasUtah St
23.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StTexasWashington St
22.2%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StUT San AntonioWashington St
22.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StSan Diego StTexas
20.9%
0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexasWashington St
18.9%
0.1%
Fresno StOregon StTexasUtah St
16.7%
0.1%
North TexasSan Diego StUtah StWashington St
16.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StNorth TexasSan Diego StUtah St
16.7%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexasUtah St
15.8%
0.2%
Boise StOregon StTexasUtah St
14.9%
0.2%
Oregon StTexasUtah StWashington St
14.8%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexasUtah StWashington St
13.8%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StFresno StTexas
13.4%
0.2%
Boise StTexasUtah StWashington St
12.3%
0.3%
Fresno StOregon StTexasWashington St
12.2%
0.1%
San Diego StTexasUtah StWashington St
11.9%
0.2%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexasWashington St
11.5%
0.3%
Colorado StFresno StSan Diego StTexas
11.1%
0.1%
Boise StFresno StOregon StTexas
11.0%
0.4%
Fresno StOregon StSan Diego StTexas
10.7%
0.3%
Boise StColorado StTexasWashington St
10.6%
0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexasUtah St
10.1%
0.2%
Boise StSan Diego StUT San AntonioUtah St
10.0%
<0.1%
Boise StColorado StSan Diego StTexas
9.8%
0.4%
Boise StOregon StTexasWashington St
9.7%
0.4%
Boise StFresno StTexasUtah St
7.8%
0.3%
Boise StOregon StSan Diego StTexas
7.6%
0.9%
Boise StNorth TexasOregon StSan Diego St
7.1%
<0.1%
Boise StOregon StSan Diego StUT San Antonio
7.1%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexasUtah St
7.1%
0.7%
Boise StFresno StTexasWashington St
6.5%
0.4%
Boise StSan Diego StUT San AntonioWashington St
5.0%
<0.1%
Boise StSan Diego StTexasWashington St
4.8%
0.8%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexasWashington St
4.1%
0.3%
Boise StFresno StSan Diego StTexas
2.6%
1.0%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com