Texas StateBobcats
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Texas State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Texas State has a 20.1% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Texas State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:2% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 10/15 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:26% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.6% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 5.0% | 99.4% |
| 5-2 | 16.5% | 71.8% |
| 4-3 | 29.0% | 9.7% |
| 3-4 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 15.7% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
0.2%Any 2 losses
97.2%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.4%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%98.7%
0.5%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
78.8%
7.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
0.4%99.1%
0.3%99.0%
0.1%98.8%
0.3%98.7%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%90.2%
0.1%89.6%
0.2%88.5%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%85.1%
0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.4%81.9%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.9%
0.4%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
0.4%68.5%
0.4%68.2%
0.5%68.0%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%51.4%
1.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
41.2%
17.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%98.2%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.2%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.1%88.6%
0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.4%
0.2%83.8%
0.1%83.5%
0.3%83.0%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.5%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%80.5%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%79.9%
0.3%79.7%
0.2%79.1%
<0.1%78.9%
0.2%78.0%
0.3%77.6%
<0.1%77.0%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%72.8%
0.2%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.9%
0.2%68.6%
0.2%68.3%
<0.1%66.9%
0.3%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.0%
0.3%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
0.3%63.9%
0.3%61.2%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.8%48.0%
0.1%47.7%
0.7%33.3%
<0.1%30.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.4%
0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.9%
0.1%18.9%
0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%14.9%
0.2%14.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.4%
0.2%12.3%
0.3%12.2%
0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.5%
0.3%11.1%
0.1%11.0%
0.4%10.7%
0.3%10.6%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.4%9.7%
0.4%7.8%
0.3%7.6%
0.9%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.7%6.5%
0.4%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.8%4.1%
0.3%2.6%
1.0%Data from 2026-08-26