Boise StateBroncos
7-1 1st (4-0) in P12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
99.7%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Boise State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Boise State has a 99.7% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Boise State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Boise State need to do to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Boise State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 100%.
What is the biggest game this week for Boise State's PAC 12 Championship Game odds?
Boise State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Colorado State would put its PAC 12 Championship Game odds at 99.7%, while a loss would drop them to 99.3%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L27-34 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W38-20 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W38-24 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W32-7 | |
| 5 | 10/03 | W37-18 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W38-31 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W31-10 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | W46-45 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:96% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 73.3% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 25.2% | 100.0% |
| 5-2 | 1.5% | 82.8% |
| 4-3 | 0.0% | 4.3% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 99.7% (+0.0%) | 99.3% (-0.4%) | ||
| 99.7% (+0.0%) | 99.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 99.8% (+0.1%) | 99.7% (-0.0%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Boise State
Texas StateCCG: 99.7% • Scenario: 29.9%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG Probability
Data from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02