Boise St

Boise StateBroncos

1-1 T1st (0-0) in P12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

90.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Boise State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?

Boise State has a 90.5% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Boise State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Boise StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@OregonORE
L27-34
29/12
vsMemphisMEM
W38-20
39/19
vsSouth DakotaSDAK
Win prob:90%
49/26
@W MichiganWMU
Win prob:66%
510/03
vsUtah StUSU
Win prob:93%
610/10
@Fresno StFRES
Win prob:71%
810/24
@Washington StWSU
Win prob:87%
910/31
vsTexas StTXST
Win prob:94%
1011/07
@Colorado StCSU
Win prob:82%
1111/14
vsOregon StORST
Win prob:90%
1211/21
vsSan Diego StSDSU
Win prob:84%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Boise StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-0
33.5%
100.0%
6-1
40.8%
99.7%
5-2
19.9%
78.6%
4-3
5.1%
13.4%
3-4
0.7%
0%
2-5
0.1%
0%
1-6
0%
0%
0-7
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Boise St CCG Opponents

if Boise St makes the CCG

SDSUSan Diego St
33.0%
FRESFresno St
29.6%
ORSTOregon St
14.0%
CSUColorado St
9.1%
USUUtah St
5.8%
TXSTTexas St
4.4%
WSUWashington St
4.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Boise StThis Week's Impact

Game
Boise StCCG OddsAway Wins
Boise StCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
90.5%
(-0.0%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)
DuquesneDUQ@Washington StWSU
90.4%
(-0.1%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
90.5%
(+0.0%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
90.5%
(+0.0%)		90.3%
(-0.1%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
90.5%
(+0.1%)		90.4%
(-0.1%)
South DakotaSDAK@Boise StBOIS
90.3%
(-0.2%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)
Fresno StFRES@San Jose StSJSU
90.5%
(-0.0%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)
MontanaMONT@Oregon StORST
90.5%
(+0.0%)		90.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Boise StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Boise St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
19.9%
Any 1 loss
99.8%
36.7%
W Michigan
100.0%
10.2%
South Dakota
100.0%
2.2%
Washington St
100.0%
3.0%
Texas St
99.9%
1.2%
Utah St
99.9%
1.5%
Colorado St
99.9%
4.3%
Oregon St
99.8%
2.3%
Fresno St
99.6%
8.2%
San Diego St
99.6%
3.9%
Any 2 losses
91.0%
28.0%
South DakotaW Michigan
100.0%
1.1%
South DakotaTexas St
100.0%
0.1%
South DakotaWashington St
100.0%
0.3%
Texas StW Michigan
99.9%
0.6%
W MichiganWashington St
99.9%
1.5%
Colorado StW Michigan
99.9%
2.2%
Colorado StSouth Dakota
99.9%
0.5%
Utah StW Michigan
99.9%
0.8%
South DakotaUtah St
99.8%
0.2%
Oregon StSouth Dakota
99.8%
0.3%
Oregon StW Michigan
99.8%
1.2%
San Diego StSouth Dakota
99.6%
0.4%
San Diego StW Michigan
99.6%
2.0%
Fresno StW Michigan
99.6%
4.2%
Fresno StSouth Dakota
99.6%
0.9%
Texas StWashington St
94.4%
0.2%
Utah StWashington St
93.2%
0.2%
Colorado StWashington St
92.3%
0.6%
Texas StUtah St
91.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas St
91.3%
0.3%
Colorado StUtah St
91.1%
0.3%
Oregon StWashington St
88.3%
0.4%
Oregon StTexas St
86.3%
0.1%
Fresno StWashington St
86.3%
1.2%
Oregon StUtah St
85.9%
0.2%
San Diego StWashington St
85.2%
0.6%
Colorado StOregon St
83.8%
0.5%
Fresno StTexas St
82.7%
0.5%
San Diego StTexas St
82.2%
0.2%
San Diego StUtah St
80.7%
0.3%
Fresno StUtah St
80.5%
0.6%
Colorado StFresno St
78.8%
1.7%
Colorado StSan Diego St
77.3%
0.8%
Fresno StOregon St
68.7%
0.9%
Oregon StSan Diego St
66.3%
0.4%
Fresno StSan Diego St
58.3%
1.6%
Any 3 losses
64.3%
11.8%
Colorado StSouth DakotaW Michigan
99.9%
0.2%
South DakotaW MichiganWashington St
99.9%
0.2%
South DakotaUtah StW Michigan
99.9%
<0.1%
San Diego StSouth DakotaW Michigan
99.7%
0.2%
South DakotaTexas StW Michigan
99.7%
<0.1%
Fresno StSouth DakotaW Michigan
99.5%
0.5%
Oregon StSouth DakotaW Michigan
99.4%
0.1%
South DakotaTexas StWashington St
96.2%
<0.1%
Utah StW MichiganWashington St
94.0%
0.1%
Texas StW MichiganWashington St
93.8%
<0.1%
South DakotaTexas StUtah St
93.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth DakotaWashington St
92.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StW MichiganWashington St
92.4%
0.3%
Colorado StTexas StW Michigan
91.4%
0.1%
Colorado StUtah StW Michigan
90.1%
0.2%
Texas StUtah StW Michigan
89.5%
<0.1%
Oregon StW MichiganWashington St
89.2%
0.2%
Oregon StSouth DakotaTexas St
89.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth DakotaTexas St
88.3%
<0.1%
Colorado StSouth DakotaUtah St
88.3%
<0.1%
South DakotaUtah StWashington St
88.2%
<0.1%
Oregon StSouth DakotaWashington St
87.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexas StW Michigan
86.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StW MichiganWashington St
86.0%
0.6%
Oregon StUtah StW Michigan
85.9%
<0.1%
San Diego StW MichiganWashington St
85.7%
0.3%
Oregon StSouth DakotaUtah St
85.7%
<0.1%
San Diego StSouth DakotaWashington St
85.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSouth DakotaWashington St
84.2%
0.1%
Colorado StOregon StW Michigan
83.2%
0.3%
Colorado StOregon StSouth Dakota
83.0%
<0.1%
Fresno StSouth DakotaTexas St
82.8%
<0.1%
San Diego StSouth DakotaTexas St
82.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StW Michigan
81.7%
0.3%
San Diego StTexas StW Michigan
81.1%
0.1%
Fresno StUtah StW Michigan
80.7%
0.3%
Fresno StSouth DakotaUtah St
79.7%
<0.1%
San Diego StSouth DakotaUtah St
79.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StSouth Dakota
79.6%
0.2%
San Diego StUtah StW Michigan
78.3%
0.1%
Colorado StFresno StW Michigan
78.1%
0.9%
Colorado StSan Diego StW Michigan
77.3%
0.4%
Colorado StSan Diego StSouth Dakota
74.8%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StSouth Dakota
70.2%
0.1%
Fresno StOregon StW Michigan
70.0%
0.5%
Oregon StSan Diego StW Michigan
66.8%
0.2%
Oregon StSan Diego StSouth Dakota
66.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StSouth Dakota
57.0%
0.2%
Fresno StSan Diego StW Michigan
56.9%
0.8%
Texas StUtah StWashington St
31.4%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StWashington St
28.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUtah StWashington St
26.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StUtah StWashington St
24.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StWashington St
23.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StTexas StUtah St
22.1%
<0.1%
San Diego StTexas StUtah St
21.7%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StTexas St
20.1%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StWashington St
19.9%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexas StWashington St
19.7%
<0.1%
Oregon StTexas StUtah St
19.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StUtah StWashington St
18.9%
0.1%
Fresno StTexas StWashington St
18.5%
<0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StWashington St
18.4%
0.1%
San Diego StUtah StWashington St
18.3%
<0.1%
Fresno StTexas StUtah St
18.0%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StWashington St
17.4%
0.3%
Colorado StSan Diego StTexas St
17.2%
<0.1%
Colorado StOregon StUtah St
15.6%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StTexas St
14.3%
0.1%
Colorado StSan Diego StUtah St
13.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StWashington St
13.2%
0.1%
Colorado StFresno StUtah St
12.7%
0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StTexas St
12.6%
<0.1%
Fresno StOregon StTexas St
12.4%
<0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StWashington St
11.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StOregon St
10.6%
0.2%
Fresno StOregon StUtah St
10.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StTexas St
9.9%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StWashington St
9.8%
0.2%
Colorado StOregon StSan Diego St
9.2%
<0.1%
Fresno StSan Diego StUtah St
7.9%
0.1%
Oregon StSan Diego StUtah St
7.9%
<0.1%
Colorado StFresno StSan Diego St
7.0%
0.3%
Fresno StOregon StSan Diego St
5.2%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Boise StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com