Boise StateBroncos
0-0 T1st (0-0) in P12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
62.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Boise State's probability of making the PAC 12 Championship Game?
Boise State has a 62.8% chance to reach the PAC 12 Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Boise State's PAC 12 Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:8% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:81% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 8.5% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 25.8% | 99.8% |
| 5-2 | 32.6% | 78.8% |
| 4-3 | 22.0% | 13.2% |
| 3-4 | 8.9% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
99.9%
4.2%100.0%
3.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.9%
0.1%Any 2 losses
98.3%
14.9%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
1.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.8%
1.9%99.7%
2.0%99.6%
1.1%99.5%
2.0%99.2%
0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
0.1%85.4%
<0.1%84.8%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%67.8%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
0.1%Any 3 losses
87.2%
25.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
1.0%99.9%
0.9%99.9%
0.8%99.9%
0.7%99.8%
1.2%99.6%
1.1%99.6%
0.8%99.6%
0.3%99.2%
0.5%99.1%
0.1%98.6%
0.2%94.9%
0.3%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
0.2%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.5%91.8%
0.6%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
0.5%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.2%
0.3%87.2%
0.4%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.6%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.9%
0.5%83.4%
0.3%83.4%
0.5%83.3%
<0.1%82.4%
0.4%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
0.6%78.6%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%78.0%
1.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.0%
0.5%76.7%
0.7%76.7%
0.3%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.6%
0.8%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%70.9%
1.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.3%
0.7%68.2%
<0.1%66.3%
1.3%65.9%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
60.4%
25.8%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%99.4%
0.5%99.4%
0.5%96.6%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
0.2%93.9%
0.1%93.3%
<0.1%93.0%
0.1%92.8%
0.3%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
0.2%89.7%
0.2%89.7%
0.3%89.6%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
0.2%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.8%
0.3%87.5%
<0.1%87.3%
0.1%86.4%
0.2%85.5%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
0.3%84.3%
<0.1%84.0%
0.2%84.0%
0.3%82.3%
0.3%82.1%
<0.1%82.0%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.8%
0.3%80.6%
0.2%80.2%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.2%
0.2%79.2%
0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.7%
0.2%78.7%
0.8%78.5%
0.3%78.3%
<0.1%77.1%
0.3%77.0%
0.5%76.4%
0.4%76.3%
<0.1%75.8%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.6%
0.3%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
0.5%73.2%
0.1%73.2%
0.4%72.8%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
0.6%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.6%
0.8%66.5%
0.3%65.6%
0.4%65.4%
0.1%64.4%
0.6%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
0.1%26.8%
0.1%25.8%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.9%
0.2%21.9%
0.3%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.2%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
0.3%18.6%
0.3%18.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.1%16.0%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
0.2%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
0.1%12.2%
0.2%12.1%
0.3%11.9%
0.3%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.3%11.6%
0.3%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.4%9.6%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.4%
0.4%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.5%6.0%
0.4%5.7%
0.8%3.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26