Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W26-3 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:62% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:95% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:70% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:65% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:57% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:46% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:66% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.2% | 97.5% |
| 6-2 | 13.7% | 59.3% |
| 5-3 | 24.9% | 2.9% |
| 4-4 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 19.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 8.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 13.2% (-0.3%) | 13.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.4% (-0.1%) | 13.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.2% (-0.2%) | 13.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.6% (+0.1%) | 13.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 13.9% (+0.4%) | 13.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-13.5%) | |
| 12.9% (-0.5%) | 13.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.0%) | 13.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.7% (+0.2%) | 13.2% (-0.2%) | |
| 12.7% (-0.7%) | 13.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.4% (-0.1%) | 13.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 12.9% (-0.5%) | 13.6% (+0.2%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.0%) | 13.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 13.4% (-0.0%) | 13.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 13.5% (+0.1%) | 13.4% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
97.7%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.4%
0.3%98.2%
0.2%97.8%
0.3%97.5%
0.3%95.5%
0.2%94.6%
0.3%Any 2 losses
69.6%
7.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.5%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%97.5%
0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.1%
0.2%97.1%
0.1%96.0%
0.1%95.8%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
0.2%93.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%71.1%
<0.1%70.0%
0.2%68.8%
0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.9%
0.2%64.8%
0.1%64.8%
0.4%64.1%
0.2%63.3%
0.5%63.0%
0.2%62.6%
0.2%62.5%
0.1%62.2%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%61.2%
<0.1%60.1%
0.4%59.6%
0.2%57.9%
0.2%57.0%
0.2%55.9%
0.1%53.9%
0.1%53.5%
0.2%51.2%
0.4%48.5%
0.3%48.3%
0.1%48.2%
0.4%Any 3 losses
26.7%
17.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%69.6%
0.1%69.5%
0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.4%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.3%
0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%65.1%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.6%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.6%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.5%
0.1%60.2%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
0.2%58.1%
0.3%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.4%
0.2%57.3%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.6%
0.2%56.6%
0.2%56.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.3%
0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.9%
0.1%53.6%
0.2%52.8%
0.2%52.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.3%48.7%
0.2%48.5%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%42.2%
0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.5%
0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%5.7%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
0.5%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
0.4%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.4%1.7%
0.5%1.6%
0.4%1.6%
0.3%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
11.4%
12.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.6%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.9%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.9%
0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
0.3%2.3%
0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.3%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02