Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
22.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:64% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:60% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:69% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:89% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:58% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:62% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 2.6% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 12.9% | 91.8% |
| 6-2 | 26.9% | 30.8% |
| 5-3 | 29.8% | 0.3% |
| 4-4 | 19.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 23.0% (+0.2%) | 22.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 22.8% (+0.0%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.6% (-0.3%) | 22.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.3% (-0.5%) | 22.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.3% (-0.5%) | 22.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 22.8% (+0.0%) | 0.0% (-22.8%) | |
| 22.6% (-0.2%) | 22.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.9% (+0.1%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.9% (+0.1%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.7% (-0.1%) | 22.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 22.9% (+0.1%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.1% (+0.3%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 23.2% (+0.4%) | 22.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 22.3% (-0.5%) | 23.7% (+0.9%) | |
| 22.8% (+0.0%) | 22.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.9%
1.0%Any 1 loss
93.4%
6.2%
100.0%
0.5%
99.8%
0.6%
98.2%
0.1%
96.2%
0.4%
93.4%
1.3%
92.9%
0.1%
92.1%
1.1%
91.9%
0.6%
91.8%
0.1%
91.7%
0.6%
86.7%
0.8%Any 2 losses
53.8%
16.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%95.5%
0.2%95.1%
0.3%94.4%
0.1%93.9%
0.7%93.8%
<0.1%93.7%
0.6%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%93.0%
0.6%92.3%
<0.1%92.2%
0.3%92.0%
0.4%91.9%
0.5%91.8%
0.3%91.7%
0.3%90.0%
<0.1%89.0%
0.1%89.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%85.6%
0.4%85.6%
0.4%84.5%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%45.5%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
0.6%43.2%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%38.4%
0.3%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
0.8%35.0%
0.1%34.2%
0.1%34.2%
0.4%33.8%
<0.1%33.8%
1.3%33.8%
<0.1%32.1%
0.3%31.4%
0.6%30.8%
0.4%30.5%
0.3%29.8%
0.8%29.8%
<0.1%25.8%
0.9%25.0%
0.1%24.2%
0.7%24.1%
0.1%22.1%
0.4%21.8%
0.8%16.5%
0.5%Any 3 losses
34.0%
16.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.6%
0.2%92.6%
<0.1%92.2%
0.2%92.0%
0.4%91.2%
0.3%91.0%
<0.1%90.7%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.2%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%48.1%
0.2%47.3%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%45.1%
0.1%44.8%
0.3%44.7%
<0.1%44.5%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.2%
0.4%37.0%
0.4%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.6%
0.2%34.7%
<0.1%34.3%
0.2%33.3%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.1%
0.2%32.7%
0.2%32.4%
0.7%32.3%
0.8%32.0%
<0.1%31.8%
0.3%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
0.2%30.5%
0.1%29.9%
0.1%29.7%
0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.5%
0.4%28.4%
0.4%28.1%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.1%
0.3%27.1%
0.4%26.8%
0.5%26.8%
0.4%25.6%
0.5%25.6%
<0.1%25.5%
0.2%25.0%
0.4%24.3%
0.2%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
0.2%22.1%
<0.1%21.7%
0.3%21.3%
0.3%20.9%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
0.3%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02