Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:49% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:47% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:50% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:8% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:30% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:52% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:42% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 69.1% |
| 7-2 | 2.2% | 9.4% |
| 6-3 | 9.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 20.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 24.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.4% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
69.3%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
77.8%
<0.1%
76.9%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
21.3%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
15.2%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
10.5%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02