Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
53.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L3-34 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W66-20 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:95% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:63% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:83% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:78% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:90% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 13.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 32.5% | 92.0% |
| 6-2 | 31.7% | 32.2% |
| 5-3 | 16.7% | 0.5% |
| 4-4 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% (+0.5%) | 53.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.2%) | 53.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.8% (-0.7%) | 53.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.5% (+0.1%) | 52.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.1%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.1%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.1% (-0.3%) | 53.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 54.1% (+0.6%) | 53.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.4% (+0.0%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.5% (+0.1%) | 53.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 53.3% (-0.1%) | 53.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.1% (-0.4%) | 53.8% (+0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
8.7%Any 1 loss
93.3%
25.7%
100.0%
3.2%
99.9%
1.0%
95.8%
1.7%
94.6%
1.6%
93.9%
0.4%
93.9%
5.2%
93.1%
4.9%
92.4%
2.6%
90.7%
0.5%
86.1%
4.6%Any 2 losses
52.6%
31.3%99.7%
0.3%95.8%
0.6%95.6%
0.2%95.3%
0.6%95.1%
1.9%94.9%
0.2%94.6%
0.6%92.8%
0.2%92.6%
0.2%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
0.5%92.5%
1.0%92.0%
1.7%91.7%
0.3%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
0.5%85.8%
1.7%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%49.2%
<0.1%49.0%
1.0%46.3%
0.3%45.3%
<0.1%45.2%
0.3%45.2%
0.1%44.0%
0.5%42.1%
<0.1%41.5%
0.9%39.6%
1.5%38.0%
0.9%37.3%
0.1%36.2%
0.2%35.9%
0.5%35.0%
2.8%34.0%
0.3%32.0%
0.9%31.8%
0.2%30.3%
0.9%29.8%
0.2%28.2%
1.4%25.5%
0.8%24.8%
2.7%24.6%
1.3%20.5%
2.4%Any 3 losses
26.7%
14.9%100.0%
<0.1%95.3%
0.2%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.1%
<0.1%91.3%
0.1%89.5%
0.2%85.7%
<0.1%80.7%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%50.9%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
<0.1%49.0%
<0.1%48.3%
0.4%47.5%
0.2%47.4%
0.1%46.6%
<0.1%44.4%
0.1%44.1%
0.2%42.9%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
0.4%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
0.5%38.4%
0.1%36.4%
0.3%35.8%
0.4%35.6%
0.3%35.4%
0.1%35.2%
<0.1%35.2%
0.1%33.0%
0.1%32.5%
<0.1%32.1%
0.3%31.8%
1.0%30.3%
0.5%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.2%
<0.1%28.2%
0.1%27.2%
<0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
1.0%21.9%
0.3%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
0.3%20.9%
0.5%19.6%
0.1%19.3%
0.9%17.1%
0.3%16.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
0.6%1.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.8%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08