Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W76-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W52-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:93% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:82% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:61% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:37% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:82% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:19% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:78% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:90% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.0% | 99.7% |
| 7-1 | 8.3% | 61.8% |
| 6-2 | 24.1% | 3.3% |
| 5-3 | 32.7% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 8.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6% (-0.3%) | 7.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.9% (+0.0%) | 6.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.2%) | 7.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 6.9% (-0.0%) | 6.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.9% (+0.0%) | 6.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.2%) | 6.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.7% (-0.2%) | 7.4% (+0.5%) | |
| 7.2% (+0.3%) | 6.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.0% (+0.1%) | 6.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.1%) | 7.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.2%) | 7.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.4%) | 6.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.1%) | 8.9% (+2.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.6%
0.8%Any 1 loss
63.2%
6.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
80.6%
0.5%
80.5%
<0.1%
79.5%
0.2%
78.6%
0.2%
76.0%
1.3%
72.9%
0.2%
68.4%
0.8%
49.0%
3.3%Any 2 losses
8.3%
20.6%100.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.0%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
0.2%65.1%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
0.3%46.2%
0.6%25.0%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%10.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.3%
0.1%6.8%
0.8%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%5.8%
0.3%5.5%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.9%
0.2%4.7%
0.8%4.5%
0.9%4.4%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
2.1%3.7%
0.5%3.2%
5.4%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.7%2.0%
1.4%0.6%
3.6%Any 3 losses
4.6%
4.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.2%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.6%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.4%
0.4%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
0.4%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
1.1%2.5%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.6%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%Any 4 losses
7.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08