Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W31-13 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W21-14 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:28% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:41% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:45% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:56% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:34% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:53% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:73% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.4% | 80.5% |
| 6-2 | 10.3% | 18.7% |
| 5-3 | 23.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 29.5% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 22.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 2.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% (+0.1%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.0%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.0% (-0.1%) | 4.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 4.2% (+0.1%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 4.3% (+0.2%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.1% (+0.0%) | 4.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
82.5%
0.8%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
92.9%
<0.1%
83.0%
0.1%
80.8%
0.1%
79.0%
<0.1%
79.0%
<0.1%
76.5%
<0.1%
74.9%
0.2%
68.9%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
41.4%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%83.0%
0.1%82.1%
0.4%82.1%
<0.1%81.7%
0.2%81.1%
0.1%80.4%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.3%
0.3%78.6%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
0.1%29.4%
<0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.9%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.3%15.9%
0.2%15.8%
0.5%15.6%
0.2%15.1%
0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%Any 3 losses
20.6%
6.9%100.0%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%82.7%
0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%34.6%
0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
0.3%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.3%
<0.1%24.0%
0.2%22.5%
0.1%22.3%
0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
0.3%21.0%
<0.1%20.7%
0.3%19.7%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
0.4%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.1%
0.9%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
0.5%14.1%
<0.1%14.1%
0.3%13.7%
0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.0%
0.2%12.7%
0.2%12.0%
<0.1%10.1%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%Any 4 losses
12.8%
2.8%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%21.8%
0.1%20.6%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.1%
0.2%16.5%
0.1%16.0%
0.3%15.8%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.0%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08