Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Boston CollegeBC | 1-0 | 2-0 | 4.4% | |
| T1 |  SyracuseSYR | 1-0 | 2-0 | 1.5% | |
| T1 |  VirginiaUVA | 1-0 | 2-0 | 0.2% | |
| 4 |  Georgia TechGT | 1-1 | 2-1 | 3.7% | |
| T5 |  ClemsonCLEM | 0-0 | 1-1 | 53.4% | |
| T5 |  LouisvilleLOU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 41.5% | |
| T5 |  SMUSMU | 0-0 | 2-1 | 26.8% | |
| T5 |  Virginia TechVT | 0-0 | 1-1 | 17.0% | |
| T5 |  MiamiMIA | 0-0 | 2-0 | 16.4% | |
| T5 |  DukeDUKE | 0-0 | 2-0 | 12.4% | |
| T5 |  North CarolinaUNC | 0-0 | 2-0 | 9.8% | |
| T5 |  NC StateNCSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4.4% | |
| T5 |  CaliforniaCAL | 0-0 | 2-0 | 4.1% | |
| T5 |  PittsburghPITT | 0-0 | 2-0 | 3.1% | |
| T5 |  Florida StateFSU | 0-2 | 0-2 | 1.0% | |
| T5 |  Wake ForestWAKE | 0-1 | 1-1 | 0.2% | |
| T5 |  StanfordSTAN | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 53.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.0% (+0.5%) | 53.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.2%) | 53.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 52.8% (-0.7%) | 53.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.5% (+0.1%) | 52.9% (-0.5%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.1%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.6% (+0.1%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.1% (-0.3%) | 53.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 54.1% (+0.6%) | 53.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 53.4% (+0.0%) | 53.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 53.5% (+0.1%) | 53.0% (-0.4%) | |
| 53.3% (-0.1%) | 53.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 53.1% (-0.4%) | 53.8% (+0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClemsonCLEM | 99.9% | 92.0% | 32.2% | 0.5% | 53.4% |
| LouisvilleLOU | 100% | 96.3% | 42.4% | 1.2% | 41.5% |
| SMUSMU | 99.9% | 86.8% | 25.7% | 0.2% | 26.8% |
| Virginia TechVT | 100% | 90.6% | 30.8% | 0.5% | 17.0% |
| MiamiMIA | 100% | 90.6% | 36.0% | 0.8% | 16.4% |
| DukeDUKE | 100% | 92.1% | 41.1% | 1.1% | 12.4% |
| North CarolinaUNC | 99.8% | 77.8% | 19.0% | <0.1% | 9.8% |
| NC StateNCSU | 99.4% | 87.2% | 24.5% | 0.3% | 4.4% |
| Boston CollegeBC | 100% | 93.2% | 36.8% | 0.8% | 4.4% |
| CaliforniaCAL | 100% | 80.5% | 18.7% | 0.1% | 4.1% |
| Georgia TechGT | - | 98.3% | 52.4% | 1.9% | 3.7% |
| PittsburghPITT | 100% | 97.7% | 49.8% | 2.1% | 3.1% |
| SyracuseSYR | 100% | 82.9% | 23.6% | 0.2% | 1.5% |
| Florida StateFSU | - | - | 66.3% | 3.7% | 1.0% |
| VirginiaUVA | - | 100% | 53.8% | 3.3% | 0.2% |
| Wake ForestWAKE | - | 95.7% | 31.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| StanfordSTAN | - | 100% | 57.4% | 2.7% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 8-0 | 7-1 | 6-2 | 5-3 | 4-4 | 3-5 | 2-6 | 1-7 | 0-8 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ClemsonCLEM(0-0) | 13.3% | 32.5% | 31.7% | 16.7% | 4.9% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.3 |
| LouisvilleLOU(0-0) | 5.6% | 22.4% | 33.1% | 24.9% | 10.7% | 2.8% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.8 |
| SMUSMU(0-0) | 3.8% | 17.4% | 30.7% | 28.4% | 14.5% | 4.4% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 |
| Virginia TechVT(0-0) | 1.4% | 9.1% | 23.4% | 30.9% | 23.0% | 9.6% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.0 |
| MiamiMIA(0-0) | 1.2% | 8.2% | 20.9% | 29.1% | 24.2% | 12.2% | 3.5% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.8 |
| North CarolinaUNC(0-0) | 1.0% | 6.6% | 19.1% | 28.5% | 25.6% | 13.8% | 4.6% | 0.8% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| DukeDUKE(0-0) | 0.8% | 5.3% | 15.8% | 26.1% | 26.7% | 17.1% | 6.6% | 1.5% | 0.1% | 4.4 |
| NC StateNCSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.0% | 9.9% | 23.4% | 30.6% | 22.8% | 9.1% | 1.8% | 0.1% | 4.0 |
| CaliforniaCAL(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.4% | 10.3% | 23.1% | 29.5% | 22.5% | 9.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 4.0 |
| Boston CollegeBC(1-0) | 0.1% | 1.4% | 7.7% | 21.7% | 31.9% | 25.4% | 10.2% | 1.6% | - | 3.9 |
| Georgia TechGT(1-1) | - | 0.6% | 5.3% | 18.1% | 31.0% | 29.2% | 13.5% | 2.5% | - | 3.7 |
| PittsburghPITT(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.3% | 14.7% | 28.2% | 29.9% | 16.8% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 3.5 |
| SyracuseSYR(1-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 13.6% | 27.5% | 32.2% | 18.5% | 3.8% | - | 3.4 |
| Florida StateFSU(0-2) | - | - | 1.1% | 7.9% | 22.8% | 32.7% | 24.7% | 9.5% | 1.3% | 2.9 |
| VirginiaUVA(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 10.3% | 27.8% | 38.5% | 21.1% | - | 2.3 |
| Wake ForestWAKE(0-1) | - | <0.1% | 0.4% | 3.2% | 12.2% | 27.0% | 32.5% | 19.9% | 4.7% | 2.3 |
| StanfordSTAN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | <0.1% | 0.5% | 3.1% | 12.7% | 29.2% | 36.1% | 18.4% | 1.5 |
Data from 2024-09-08