Duke

DukeBlue Devils

2-0 T5th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

12.4%

Based on 100,000 simulations

DukeSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsElonELON
W26-3
29/06
vsNorthwesternNU(N)
W26-20
39/14
vsUConnCONN
Win prob:95%
49/21
@MTSUMTSU
Win prob:82%
59/28
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:64%
610/05
@Georgia TechGT
Win prob:49%
810/18
vsFlorida StFSU
Win prob:57%
910/26
vsSMUSMU
Win prob:51%
1011/02
@Miami FLMIA
Win prob:39%
1111/09
@NC StateNCSU
Win prob:55%
1311/23
vsVirginia TechVT
Win prob:59%
1411/30
@Wake ForestWAKE
Win prob:67%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.8%
100.0%
7-1
5.3%
92.1%
6-2
15.8%
41.1%
5-3
26.1%
1.1%
4-4
26.7%
0%
3-5
17.1%
0%
2-6
6.6%
0%
1-7
1.5%
0%
0-8
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Duke CCG Opponents

if Duke makes the CCG

ClemsonClemson
38.5%
LouisvilleLouisville
28.1%
SMUSMU
15.0%
Virginia TechVirginia Tech
10.1%
MiamiMiami FL
8.3%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeThis Week's Impact

Game
DukeCCG OddsAway
DukeCCG OddsHome
Louisiana TechLT@NC StateNCSU
12.9%
(+0.5%)		12.3%
(-0.1%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StFSU
12.3%
(-0.1%)		12.5%
(+0.1%)
UConnCONN@DukeDUKE
12.7%
(+0.2%)		12.4%
(-0.0%)
MississippiMISS@Wake ForestWAKE
12.4%
(-0.0%)		12.6%
(+0.2%)
VMIVMI@Georgia TechGT
13.1%
(+0.6%)		12.3%
(-0.1%)
North Carolina CentralNCCU@North CarolinaUNC
12.7%
(+0.3%)		12.4%
(-0.0%)
San Diego StSDSU@CaliforniaCAL
12.6%
(+0.2%)		12.4%
(-0.1%)
Boston CollegeBC@MissouriMIZ
12.3%
(-0.1%)		12.4%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@Old DominionODU
12.4%
(-0.0%)		12.5%
(+0.1%)
MarylandMD@VirginiaUVA
12.4%
(-0.0%)		12.6%
(+0.2%)
Ball StBALL@Miami FLMIA
12.3%
(-0.1%)		12.4%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@PittsburghPITT
12.4%
(+0.0%)		12.4%
(-0.0%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Duke CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.6%
Any 1 loss
92.7%
4.3%
MTSU
100.0%
0.1%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Wake Forest
95.1%
0.3%
North Carolina
94.6%
0.3%
Georgia Tech
94.0%
0.7%
Miami FL
92.8%
0.9%
Florida St
92.0%
0.4%
Virginia Tech
90.8%
0.4%
SMU
90.6%
0.6%
NC State
90.3%
0.5%
Any 2 losses
45.1%
13.3%
UConnVirginia Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
North CarolinaUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechUConn
96.9%
<0.1%
MTSUNC State
95.2%
0.1%
UConnWake Forest
93.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSU
93.2%
0.1%
MTSUWake Forest
92.5%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FL
91.2%
0.2%
MTSUNorth Carolina
91.1%
<0.1%
Florida StUConn
90.0%
<0.1%
MTSUSMU
89.7%
0.1%
Miami FLUConn
88.2%
<0.1%
NC StateUConn
86.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSU
85.0%
0.1%
MTSUVirginia Tech
83.5%
<0.1%
SMUUConn
76.2%
<0.1%
Florida StWake Forest
62.4%
0.2%
North CarolinaWake Forest
56.0%
0.2%
NC StateWake Forest
51.9%
0.2%
Virginia TechWake Forest
51.0%
0.2%
Georgia TechWake Forest
50.3%
0.3%
Florida StGeorgia Tech
48.7%
0.5%
Georgia TechNC State
48.5%
0.5%
NC StateNorth Carolina
47.6%
0.3%
Florida StNC State
46.2%
0.4%
Miami FLNorth Carolina
45.5%
0.5%
Miami FLWake Forest
45.3%
0.4%
Georgia TechNorth Carolina
44.9%
0.4%
NC StateVirginia Tech
44.8%
0.4%
Florida StVirginia Tech
44.0%
0.3%
Florida StNorth Carolina
43.1%
0.3%
Miami FLNC State
42.3%
0.8%
Florida StMiami FL
41.4%
0.7%
SMUWake Forest
41.3%
0.3%
North CarolinaSMU
40.7%
0.3%
Georgia TechMiami FL
40.7%
1.0%
Georgia TechVirginia Tech
39.4%
0.5%
Georgia TechSMU
35.2%
0.6%
North CarolinaVirginia Tech
34.7%
0.3%
NC StateSMU
33.6%
0.5%
Florida StSMU
32.3%
0.4%
Miami FLVirginia Tech
30.0%
0.6%
Miami FLSMU
29.6%
0.9%
SMUVirginia Tech
25.7%
0.4%
Any 3 losses
8.3%
20.0%
Georgia TechMTSUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUConnVirginia Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUConnWake Forest
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUSMUUConn
87.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaUConn
85.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaUConnWake Forest
72.7%
<0.1%
Florida StUConnWake Forest
70.0%
<0.1%
Florida StNC StateUConn
66.7%
<0.1%
NC StateUConnVirginia Tech
64.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNorth CarolinaUConn
60.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateWake Forest
57.8%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechUConn
57.7%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateNorth Carolina
56.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechUConnWake Forest
54.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC State
53.8%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUWake Forest
53.6%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLUConn
53.5%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSU
51.0%
0.1%
Miami FLUConnWake Forest
50.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateVirginia Tech
48.7%
<0.1%
SMUUConnWake Forest
47.6%
<0.1%
Florida StSMUUConn
47.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUWake Forest
46.8%
<0.1%
MTSUVirginia TechWake Forest
46.5%
<0.1%
NC StateNorth CarolinaUConn
45.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUVirginia Tech
45.2%
<0.1%
MTSUSMUWake Forest
45.1%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC State
45.1%
0.2%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FL
44.9%
0.2%
Florida StMiami FLUConn
44.8%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth Carolina
44.6%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC State
43.9%
0.1%
MTSUMiami FLWake Forest
43.8%
0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FL
43.0%
0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth Carolina
42.3%
0.1%
Georgia TechNC StateUConn
41.4%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateUConn
41.2%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUVirginia Tech
40.6%
0.1%
UConnVirginia TechWake Forest
40.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaUConn
39.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth Carolina
39.0%
<0.1%
Florida StUConnVirginia Tech
37.9%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaSMU
37.5%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaUConn
37.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
37.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLUConnVirginia Tech
37.1%
<0.1%
NC StateUConnWake Forest
36.4%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLVirginia Tech
35.5%
0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
34.5%
<0.1%
SMUUConnVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUSMU
32.8%
0.1%
MTSUMiami FLSMU
32.3%
0.2%
Florida StMTSUSMU
32.0%
0.1%
North CarolinaUConnVirginia Tech
30.8%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateSMU
30.6%
0.1%
NC StateSMUUConn
30.4%
<0.1%
Miami FLSMUUConn
29.3%
<0.1%
Georgia TechSMUUConn
25.9%
<0.1%
MTSUSMUVirginia Tech
25.5%
<0.1%
North CarolinaSMUUConn
23.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechUConnVirginia Tech
17.9%
<0.1%
Florida StNC StateWake Forest
4.1%
0.2%
Florida StSMUWake Forest
3.9%
0.2%
Florida StNC StateNorth Carolina
3.3%
0.2%
Florida StNorth CarolinaWake Forest
3.2%
0.2%
Florida StGeorgia TechWake Forest
2.6%
0.2%
NC StateSMUWake Forest
2.4%
0.2%
Florida StVirginia TechWake Forest
2.4%
0.2%
Florida StNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
2.2%
0.2%
Georgia TechNorth CarolinaWake Forest
2.1%
0.2%
Florida StMiami FLNC State
2.0%
0.6%
Georgia TechVirginia TechWake Forest
1.9%
0.2%
NC StateVirginia TechWake Forest
1.7%
0.2%
Florida StGeorgia TechNC State
1.6%
0.4%
Florida StGeorgia TechNorth Carolina
1.5%
0.3%
Georgia TechNC StateSMU
1.5%
0.5%
NC StateNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.5%
0.2%
SMUVirginia TechWake Forest
1.4%
0.2%
NC StateNorth CarolinaSMU
1.4%
0.2%
Georgia TechMiami FLWake Forest
1.4%
0.5%
Georgia TechMiami FLNC State
1.3%
0.8%
Georgia TechNC StateWake Forest
1.3%
0.2%
North CarolinaSMUWake Forest
1.3%
0.2%
Georgia TechNorth CarolinaSMU
1.3%
0.3%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.2%
0.2%
NC StateNorth CarolinaWake Forest
1.2%
0.2%
Florida StMiami FLNorth Carolina
1.0%
0.4%
Miami FLNC StateNorth Carolina
1.0%
0.4%
Miami FLSMUWake Forest
0.9%
0.4%
Florida StMiami FLWake Forest
0.9%
0.3%
Miami FLNC StateVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.6%
Florida StMiami FLVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.5%
Georgia TechNC StateVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.4%
Florida StNorth CarolinaSMU
0.8%
0.2%
Florida StNC StateSMU
0.8%
0.4%
Georgia TechSMUWake Forest
0.8%
0.3%
Florida StGeorgia TechMiami FL
0.8%
0.8%
Florida StNC StateVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.3%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaSMU
0.8%
0.5%
Miami FLNC StateWake Forest
0.8%
0.4%
North CarolinaVirginia TechWake Forest
0.8%
0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLVirginia Tech
0.7%
0.7%
Georgia TechNC StateNorth Carolina
0.7%
0.3%
Georgia TechSMUVirginia Tech
0.7%
0.4%
Miami FLVirginia TechWake Forest
0.6%
0.3%
NC StateSMUVirginia Tech
0.6%
0.3%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
0.6%
0.4%
Georgia TechMiami FLSMU
0.5%
0.9%
Georgia TechMiami FLNorth Carolina
0.5%
0.6%
Any 4 losses
3.7%
3.6%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaUConnVirginia Tech
75.0%
<0.1%
MTSUUConnVirginia TechWake Forest
66.7%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateUConnVirginia Tech
60.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaUConn
55.6%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateSMUUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaSMUUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth CarolinaUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC StateUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUUConnWake Forest
50.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUUConnVirginia Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUUConnWake Forest
50.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLSMUUConn
42.9%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLUConn
41.7%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLUConnWake Forest
40.0%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateNorth CarolinaUConn
40.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth CarolinaUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLUConnVirginia Tech
33.3%
<0.1%
MTSUSMUUConnWake Forest
33.3%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUSMUUConn
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateUConn
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUUConnVirginia Tech
25.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLUConn
25.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC StateUConn
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida StNorth CarolinaUConnWake Forest
20.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUSMUUConn
20.0%
<0.1%
Florida StSMUUConnVirginia Tech
11.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
10.3%
<0.1%
NC StateUConnVirginia TechWake Forest
8.3%
<0.1%
Florida StMiami FLNorth CarolinaUConn
8.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechUConnVirginia TechWake Forest
7.7%
<0.1%
Florida StNC StateNorth CarolinaUConn
7.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC StateUConnVirginia Tech
7.1%
<0.1%
Florida StMiami FLNC StateUConn
5.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNorth CarolinaUConn
5.6%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUVirginia TechWake Forest
5.3%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateWake Forest
4.2%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUSMUWake Forest
3.9%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUNorth Carolina
3.9%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUVirginia TechWake Forest
3.6%
<0.1%
MTSUNorth CarolinaVirginia TechWake Forest
3.5%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMiami FLUConn
3.3%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC StateSMUUConn
3.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLNC StateUConn
2.9%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth CarolinaWake Forest
2.8%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateNorth CarolinaWake Forest
2.6%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLWake Forest
2.6%
<0.1%
Florida StGeorgia TechMTSUMiami FL
2.5%
0.2%
MTSUSMUVirginia TechWake Forest
2.5%
<0.1%
MTSUNC StateSMUVirginia Tech
2.4%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC StateVirginia Tech
2.4%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaWake Forest
2.2%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLSMU
2.2%
0.1%
MTSUNC StateSMUWake Forest
2.2%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNorth CarolinaSMU
2.0%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateNorth Carolina
2.0%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLSMUWake Forest
1.9%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLVirginia Tech
1.9%
0.2%
MTSUNC StateNorth CarolinaSMU
1.9%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC StateWake Forest
1.7%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateVirginia Tech
1.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUSMUWake Forest
1.6%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLNC State
1.6%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUNC StateNorth Carolina
1.5%
<0.1%
Florida StMTSUNC StateSMU
1.2%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaVirginia Tech
1.2%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC StateWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLWake Forest
1.1%
<0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNorth CarolinaSMU
0.9%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUSMUVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.1%
MTSUMiami FLNC StateVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLSMU
0.9%
0.2%
Florida StMTSUMiami FLVirginia Tech
0.9%
0.1%
MTSUMiami FLSMUVirginia Tech
0.8%
0.1%
Georgia TechMTSUMiami FLNC State
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com