Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
56.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W34-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-3 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:93% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:97% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:98% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:97% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:81% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:99% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:97% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 39.0% | 91.9% |
| 6-2 | 31.5% | 13.1% |
| 5-3 | 10.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-4 | 1.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 56.5% (-0.1%) | 56.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.1%) | 57.0% (+0.4%) | |
| 56.2% (-0.4%) | 57.5% (+0.9%) | |
| 56.5% (-0.2%) | 56.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.0%) | 56.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 56.9% (+0.3%) | 56.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 56.2% (-0.4%) | 57.6% (+0.9%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.1%) | 56.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 56.6% (-0.1%) | 56.8% (+0.1%) | |
| 56.7% (-0.0%) | 56.7% (+0.0%) | |
| 57.0% (+0.3%) | 56.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 62.1% (+5.4%) | 56.6% (-0.1%) | |
| 58.7% (+2.1%) | 27.7% (-29.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
16.0%Any 1 loss
92.0%
38.0%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
0.2%
99.5%
1.1%
97.5%
3.7%
97.2%
0.5%
96.2%
3.1%
94.7%
0.6%
92.3%
14.4%
92.0%
0.3%
87.9%
13.5%Any 2 losses
17.3%
31.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.6%
0.1%94.0%
0.5%91.1%
0.1%90.3%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.6%
0.5%87.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.2%
0.3%31.7%
0.1%30.4%
0.1%27.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.3%
0.2%25.1%
1.0%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.1%24.2%
0.5%24.1%
0.4%21.9%
0.2%21.7%
1.0%21.1%
0.5%19.4%
0.7%18.9%
0.5%17.5%
3.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
3.4%15.9%
0.1%15.8%
0.3%12.7%
2.5%11.5%
2.7%6.4%
12.2%Any 3 losses
13.4%
1.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%14.8%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.5%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08