Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W55-24 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-27 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:52% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/24 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:22% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:78% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:22% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:17% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 0.7% | 97.7% |
| 6-2 | 4.3% | 49.8% |
| 5-3 | 14.7% | 2.1% |
| 4-4 | 28.2% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 29.9% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 4.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.1%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 3.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.1%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.2% (+0.1%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.0% (-0.1%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (-0.0%) | 3.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 2.9% (-0.2%) | |
| 3.4% (+0.3%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 3.1% (+0.0%) | 3.1% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.5%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
54.7%
2.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.3%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.0%
0.2%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
0.1%40.1%
0.3%38.0%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%32.1%
0.3%25.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
14.2%
8.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%62.0%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.6%
0.2%54.2%
0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.4%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%42.2%
0.2%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.3%4.2%
0.2%3.9%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.6%2.7%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.4%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
0.4%1.4%
0.6%1.4%
0.4%1.0%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
1.1%Any 4 losses
3.7%
6.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.6%1.8%
0.6%1.8%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.5%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.0%
1.0%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08