SMUMustangs

2-1 T5th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2024-09-08 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

26.8%

Based on 100,000 simulations

Schedule & Results

Week	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/24	@NevadaNEV	W29-24
1	8/31	vsHouston ChristianHCU	W59-7
2	9/06	vsBYUBYU	L15-18
4	9/21	vsTCUTCU	Win prob:66%
5	9/28	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:63%
6	10/05	@LouisvilleLOU	Win prob:35%
8	10/19	@StanfordSTAN	Win prob:86%
9	10/26	@DukeDUKE	Win prob:49%
10	11/02	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:78%
12	11/16	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:81%
13	11/23	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:83%
14	11/30	vsCaliforniaCAL	Win prob:76%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
8-0	3.8%	99.9%
7-1	17.4%	86.8%
6-2	30.7%	25.7%
5-3	28.4%	0.2%
4-4	14.5%	0%
3-5	4.4%	0%
2-6	0.7%	0%
1-7	0.1%	0%
0-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

45.2%

27.8%

10.5%

9.3%

7.1%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome
Louisiana TechLT@NC StateNCSU	26.4% (-0.4%)	26.9% (+0.1%)
MemphisMEM@Florida StateFSU	26.6% (-0.2%)	27.0% (+0.1%)
UConnCONN@DukeDUKE	27.8% (+1.0%)	26.8% (-0.1%)
Ole MissMISS@Wake ForestWAKE	26.7% (-0.1%)	27.3% (+0.5%)
VMIVMI@Georgia TechGT	26.7% (-0.2%)	26.8% (+0.0%)
North Carolina CentralNCCU@North CarolinaUNC	26.5% (-0.4%)	26.9% (+0.0%)
San Diego StateSDSU@CaliforniaCAL	26.7% (-0.2%)	26.9% (+0.1%)
Boston CollegeBC@MissouriMIZ	27.2% (+0.4%)	26.8% (-0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@Old DominionODU	26.8% (-0.0%)	26.9% (+0.0%)
MarylandMD@VirginiaUVA	26.9% (+0.0%)	26.6% (-0.2%)
Ball StateBALL@MiamiMIA	26.8% (-0.0%)	26.8% (+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@PittsburghPITT	27.1% (+0.2%)	26.6% (-0.2%)

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.9%

2.5%

Any 1 loss

88.0%

12.8%

99.9%

1.3%

92.9%

0.8%

91.8%

2.6%

91.5%

0.5%

90.9%

1.5%

90.7%

0.6%

90.2%

0.7%

90.0%

0.4%

79.4%

4.5%

Any 2 losses

39.8%

26.2%

94.0%

0.4%

92.9%

0.3%

92.3%

0.7%

91.7%

0.3%

91.0%

0.2%

90.9%

1.3%

88.9%

0.4%

80.3%

2.4%

47.8%

0.1%

45.6%

0.2%

45.3%

0.1%

44.1%

0.2%

43.4%

0.1%

42.5%

0.2%

41.8%

0.2%

38.7%

0.4%

37.7%

0.1%

37.5%

0.3%

37.2%

0.4%

35.6%

0.1%

35.4%

0.5%

35.2%

0.3%

34.2%

<0.1%

33.8%

0.8%

32.3%

0.8%

30.5%

0.6%

30.3%

0.5%

29.8%

1.5%

29.4%

0.2%

25.2%

0.7%

24.1%

1.4%

22.3%

2.7%

19.8%

1.3%

19.5%

0.9%

19.3%

1.1%

18.9%

4.6%

Any 3 losses

19.8%

13.5%

54.3%

<0.1%

45.1%

<0.1%

43.2%

<0.1%

43.0%

0.1%

41.8%

<0.1%

40.4%

<0.1%

39.4%

0.2%

38.9%

<0.1%

38.9%

<0.1%

38.2%

<0.1%

36.8%

<0.1%

36.3%

0.4%

34.3%

0.1%

30.9%

0.3%

30.8%

0.3%

29.8%

0.8%

29.3%

0.1%

29.1%

0.2%

27.6%

0.4%

26.4%

0.2%

26.0%

0.1%

24.6%

0.4%

23.6%

0.7%

22.2%

1.4%

21.7%

0.6%

21.6%

0.5%

19.9%

0.5%

18.0%

2.4%

4.2%

<0.1%

2.7%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.7%

0.1%

1.6%

0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.1%

<0.1%

0.9%

0.2%

0.7%

0.1%

0.7%

0.3%

0.6%

0.8%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.2%

0.6%

0.4%

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2024-09-08 • SportsSimulate.com