Mountain West Conference Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08
Conference Standings
| 1 |  San José StateSJSU | 1-0 | 2-0 | 54.4% | |
| T2 |  Boise StateBOIS | 0-0 | 1-1 | 53.5% | |
| T2 |  UNLVUNLV | 0-0 | 2-0 | 36.8% | |
| T2 |  Fresno StateFRES | 0-0 | 1-1 | 26.3% | |
| T2 |  Air ForceAF | 0-1 | 1-1 | 16.3% | |
| T2 |  WyomingWYO | 0-0 | 0-2 | 5.2% | |
| T2 |  San Diego StateSDSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 4.6% | |
| T2 |  Utah StateUSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.8% | |
| T2 |  Colorado StateCSU | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.6% | |
| T2 |  Hawai'iHAW | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.5% | |
| T2 |  NevadaNEV | 0-0 | 1-2 | 0.5% | |
| T2 |  New MexicoUNM | 0-0 | 0-2 | 0.4% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 54.4%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 54.3% (-0.1%) | 54.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 54.1% (-0.3%) | 54.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 54.5% (+0.1%) | 54.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 54.2% (-0.2%) | 54.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 54.5% (+0.1%) | 54.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 54.5% (+0.1%) | 54.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 54.5% (+0.1%) | 54.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 54.3% (-0.1%) | 55.0% (+0.7%) | |
| 54.5% (+0.2%) | 54.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 54.4% (-0.0%) | 54.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 54.7% (+0.4%) | 54.1% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San José StateSJSU | 100% | 99.4% | 51.2% | 1.0% | 54.4% |
| Boise StateBOIS | 100% | 91.4% | 25.1% | 0.3% | 53.5% |
| UNLVUNLV | 100% | 97.4% | 35.0% | 0.4% | 36.8% |
| Fresno StateFRES | 100% | 85.8% | 16.5% | <0.1% | 26.3% |
| Air ForceAF | - | 78.4% | 13.1% | 0.1% | 16.3% |
| WyomingWYO | 100% | 89.4% | 21.3% | 0.2% | 5.2% |
| San Diego StateSDSU | 100% | 84.0% | 16.4% | 0.1% | 4.6% |
| Utah StateUSU | 100% | 74.8% | 9.2% | <0.1% | 0.8% |
| Colorado StateCSU | 100% | 89.3% | 12.3% | <0.1% | 0.6% |
| Hawai'iHAW | 100% | 86.4% | 14.7% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
| NevadaNEV | - | 100% | 49.2% | 0.6% | 0.5% |
| New MexicoUNM | 100% | 69.3% | 6.1% | <0.1% | 0.4% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 7-0 | 6-1 | 5-2 | 4-3 | 3-4 | 2-5 | 1-6 | 0-7 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boise StateBOIS(0-0) | 13.5% | 34.6% | 33.2% | 14.8% | 3.3% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.4 |
| San José StateSJSU(1-0) | 8.1% | 28.0% | 35.8% | 21.1% | 6.2% | 0.9% | <0.1% | - | 5.1 |
| UNLVUNLV(0-0) | 4.8% | 20.7% | 33.3% | 26.8% | 11.5% | 2.6% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Fresno StateFRES(0-0) | 4.2% | 19.2% | 34.3% | 27.9% | 11.7% | 2.5% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 4.7 |
| Air ForceAF(0-1) | - | 15.0% | 34.6% | 31.8% | 14.6% | 3.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 4.4 |
| San Diego StateSDSU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.7% | 12.9% | 28.4% | 32.2% | 18.1% | 4.9% | 0.5% | 3.3 |
| WyomingWYO(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.7% | 12.2% | 27.1% | 31.4% | 19.7% | 6.1% | 0.7% | 3.3 |
| Utah StateUSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.5% | 4.2% | 15.3% | 30.1% | 30.9% | 15.7% | 3.2% | 2.5 |
| Colorado StateCSU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.6% | 11.8% | 27.6% | 33.6% | 19.8% | 4.4% | 2.3 |
| Hawai'iHAW(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.1% | 10.3% | 26.2% | 34.4% | 21.6% | 5.1% | 2.2 |
| New MexicoUNM(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.7% | 10.5% | 24.3% | 32.2% | 23.1% | 6.9% | 2.2 |
| NevadaNEV(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.6% | 20.0% | 35.8% | 29.4% | 8.3% | 1.9 |
Data from 2024-09-08