Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | L7-48 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L13-17 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:49% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:30% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:33% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:55% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:19% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:74% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:61% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:23% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 6-1 | 2.7% | 89.4% |
| 5-2 | 12.2% | 21.3% |
| 4-3 | 27.1% | 0.2% |
| 3-4 | 31.4% | 0% |
| 2-5 | 19.7% | 0% |
| 1-6 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 0-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5.3% (+0.0%) | 5.2% (-0.0%) | |
| 4.8% (-0.4%) | 5.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.0%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.2%) | 5.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 5.3% (+0.1%) | 5.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.4% (+0.2%) | 5.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.0%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.0%) | 5.4% (+0.2%) | |
| 5.5% (+0.2%) | 5.2% (-0.1%) | |
| 5.2% (-0.0%) | 5.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 5.1% (-0.1%) | 5.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.7%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
67.1%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.7%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.5%
<0.1%83.2%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08