Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W48-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | L17-23 | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:58% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:53% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:52% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:57% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:20% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:49% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:67% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:85% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 4.1% | 89.9% |
| 7-2 | 14.3% | 36.6% |
| 6-3 | 25.4% | 1.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 7.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.4% (-0.4%) | 10.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 10.0% (+0.2%) | 9.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.1%) | 10.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.1%) | 9.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.0%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.9% (+0.1%) | 9.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (+0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.7% (-0.1%) | 9.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.0%) | 9.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
90.7%
2.6%
100.0%
0.2%
97.6%
<0.1%
95.9%
0.1%
95.7%
<0.1%
95.1%
0.2%
94.9%
0.3%
92.0%
0.2%
90.6%
0.1%
90.1%
0.2%
85.3%
1.0%Any 2 losses
46.6%
10.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.7%
0.2%93.5%
0.1%91.8%
0.2%89.4%
0.2%85.2%
0.7%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.7%
0.1%58.7%
0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.6%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%49.5%
0.5%48.1%
0.1%47.6%
<0.1%45.5%
0.1%45.0%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.5%
0.1%41.4%
0.1%40.1%
0.4%39.8%
0.1%39.8%
0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
0.2%38.0%
0.2%36.6%
0.2%36.5%
0.2%36.4%
0.5%35.8%
0.2%35.0%
1.0%35.0%
0.1%33.7%
1.1%33.2%
0.3%32.5%
0.8%27.9%
<0.1%24.0%
1.0%Any 3 losses
13.2%
17.8%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%49.0%
0.1%48.5%
<0.1%48.0%
0.4%46.1%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%43.1%
0.1%40.7%
<0.1%39.2%
0.3%38.6%
0.2%37.1%
0.2%36.9%
0.1%33.8%
0.1%33.1%
0.1%32.7%
0.4%32.1%
0.8%31.7%
<0.1%31.6%
0.2%30.9%
<0.1%30.2%
<0.1%29.7%
0.7%29.6%
<0.1%28.8%
0.6%26.5%
0.1%26.2%
0.7%25.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.4%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
0.4%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
0.8%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.5%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.1%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
0.5%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.7%0.9%
0.4%0.9%
0.5%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.9%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.9%0.6%
0.5%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08