American Athletic Conference

American Athletic Conference Championship Probabilities

Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-15

American Athletic ConferenceConference Standings

T1ArmyARMY1-02-040.1%
T1NavyNAVY1-02-08.9%
T3MemphisMEM0-03-063.1%
T3TulaneTULN0-01-239.2%
T3South FloridaUSF0-02-117.1%
T3East CarolinaECU0-02-113.5%
T3UT San AntonioUTSA0-01-28.7%
T3FL AtlanticFAU0-11-24.4%
T3North TexasUNT0-02-13.3%
T3UABUAB0-01-20.8%
T3RiceRICE0-01-20.6%
T3TulsaTLSA0-01-20.3%
T3CharlotteCLT0-01-2<0.1%
T3TempleTEM0-10-3<0.1%

Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely American Athletic Conference CCG Matchups

119.3%
ArmyARMY
vs
MEMMemphis
218.4%
MemphisMEM
vs
TULNTulane
39.9%
ArmyARMY
vs
TULNTulane
47.5%
MemphisMEM
vs
USFSouth Florida
56.0%
East CarolinaECU
vs
MEMMemphis
64.1%
MemphisMEM
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio
73.8%
MemphisMEM
vs
NAVYNavy
83.5%
ArmyARMY
vs
USFSouth Florida
93.3%
South FloridaUSF
vs
TULNTulane
102.7%
East CarolinaECU
vs
TULNTulane
112.3%
ArmyARMY
vs
ECUEast Carolina
121.8%
ArmyARMY
vs
NAVYNavy
131.7%
FL AtlanticFAU
vs
MEMMemphis
141.6%
MemphisMEM
vs
UNTNorth Texas
151.6%
TulaneTULN
vs
UTSAUT San Antonio

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2Week 3Week 4

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact on American Athletic Conference CCG Odds

Current CCG Probability: 63.1%
Game
MemphisCCG OddsAway
MemphisCCG OddsHome
WyomingWYO@North TexasUNT
63.0%
(-0.1%)		63.2%
(+0.1%)
TulaneTULN@LouisianaUL
62.7%
(-0.4%)		63.5%
(+0.3%)
CharlotteCLT@IndianaIU
63.6%
(+0.5%)		63.1%
(-0.1%)
Utah StUSU@TempleTEM
63.1%
(+0.0%)		63.1%
(-0.0%)
FL AtlanticFAU@UConnCONN
63.1%
(+0.0%)		63.1%
(-0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@LibertyLIB
63.2%
(+0.1%)		63.1%
(-0.0%)
Houston ChristianHCU@UT San AntonioUTSA
64.1%
(+0.9%)		63.0%
(-0.1%)
RiceRICE@ArmyARMY
69.1%
(+6.0%)		61.8%
(-1.3%)
MemphisMEM@NavyNAVY
71.8%
(+8.6%)		39.6%
(-23.5%)
TulsaTLSA@Louisiana TechLT
63.1%
(+0.0%)		63.1%
(-0.0%)
Miami FLMIA@South FloridaUSF
63.0%
(-0.1%)		63.4%
(+0.3%)

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceCCG Odds by Conference Record

Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-3Overall
MemphisMEM--100%-95.3%-46.2%-1.5%63.1%
ArmyARMY100%81.7%-39.8%-7.9%-<0.1%-40.1%
TulaneTULN--100%-85.3%-21.0%-0.2%39.2%
South FloridaUSF--100%-91.2%-29.1%-0.6%17.1%
East CarolinaECU--100%-75.5%-13.9%-0.1%13.5%
NavyNAVY100%93.3%-45.3%-12.3%-0.2%-8.9%
UT San AntonioUTSA--100%-93.4%-31.7%-0.4%8.7%
FL AtlanticFAU----76.8%-15.6%-0.1%4.4%
North TexasUNT--100%-99.0%-54.5%-1.4%3.3%
UABUAB--100%-100%-46.8%-1.0%0.8%
RiceRICE--100%-100%-55.8%-2.2%0.6%
TulsaTLSA--100%-93.5%-28.1%-0.5%0.3%
CharlotteCLT----100%-43.9%-1.7%<0.1%
TempleTEM----100%-42.9%-2.5%<0.1%

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com

American Athletic ConferenceFinal Record Distribution

Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record

Team9-08-18-07-27-16-36-25-45-34-54-43-63-52-72-61-81-70-8Avg Wins
ArmyARMY(1-0)7.0%22.9%0.0%31.3%0.0%24.1%0.0%11.0%0.0%3.1%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-6.8
MemphisMEM(0-0)-0.0%15.1%0.0%35.1%0.0%31.3%0.0%14.4%0.0%3.7%0.0%0.5%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%6.4
TulaneTULN(0-0)-0.0%8.7%0.0%27.5%0.0%33.3%0.0%21.1%0.0%7.7%0.0%1.6%0.0%0.2%0.0%<0.1%0.0%6.0
East CarolinaECU(0-0)-0.0%2.0%0.0%10.6%0.0%24.6%0.0%30.1%0.0%21.2%0.0%8.9%0.0%2.3%0.0%0.3%<0.1%5.0
South FloridaUSF(0-0)-0.0%1.3%0.0%9.3%0.0%24.6%0.0%32.0%0.0%22.1%0.0%8.7%0.0%1.8%0.0%0.2%<0.1%5.0
NavyNAVY(1-0)0.2%2.1%0.0%9.1%0.0%21.1%0.0%29.3%0.0%24.1%0.0%11.3%0.0%2.7%0.0%0.2%0.0%-4.9
FL AtlanticFAU(0-1)---0.0%2.8%0.0%14.3%0.0%29.2%0.0%30.5%0.0%17.1%0.0%5.3%0.0%0.8%<0.1%4.4
UT San AntonioUTSA(0-0)-0.0%0.4%0.0%4.0%0.0%14.3%0.0%27.3%0.0%29.1%0.0%17.7%0.0%6.1%0.0%1.0%<0.1%4.4
North TexasUNT(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%4.3%0.0%14.7%0.0%27.6%0.0%29.7%0.0%17.4%0.0%5.0%0.5%3.4
UABUAB(0-0)-0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%1.3%0.0%6.9%0.0%20.1%0.0%31.5%0.0%26.8%0.0%11.3%1.9%2.8
RiceRICE(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.7%0.0%4.4%0.0%15.0%0.0%28.7%0.0%31.1%0.0%16.7%3.3%2.5
TulsaTLSA(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.6%0.0%3.5%0.0%11.8%0.0%25.0%0.0%31.6%0.0%21.5%5.9%2.3
CharlotteCLT(0-0)-0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.9%0.0%5.1%0.0%16.6%0.0%31.4%0.0%32.7%13.3%1.7
TempleTEM(0-1)---0.0%0.0%0.0%<0.1%0.0%0.2%0.0%1.5%0.0%9.1%0.0%27.2%0.0%40.1%21.9%1.3

Data from 2024-09-15 • SportsSimulate.com